Ukraine’s presidential party could create parliamentary majority alone

Official results to date from Ukraine’s parliamentary
elections show President Volodymyr Zelensky’s The People’s Servant party as
having a commanding lead. With the Central Election Committee reporting on the
results from 57% of polling stations thus far, our calculations show that The
People’s Servant will have 247 seats in the next convocation of the Verkhovna
Rada, which is enough to create a parliamentary majority (at least 226 seats)
on its own.

Our calculations also show that the pro-Kremlin
Opposition Plaftom for Life will have 43 seats, ex-president Poroshenko’s
European Solidarity party will seat 27 deputies, Yuliya Tymoshenko’s Fatherland
party will hold 25 seats, and Voice (Holos), the party of rock star Svyatoslav
Vakarchuk, will have 20 seats.

James Hydzik: The results
fall in line with pre-election and exit polls, so there are few surprises at
the headline level. There may be upsets in individual districts (please see our
news regarding Ferrexpo CEO Konstantin Zhevago possibly losing his national
deputy’s seat; so is president of Motor Sich (MSICH UK) Vyacheslav Boguslayev).

How The People’s Servant legislates remains to be
seen, but the election itself points to some positive dynamics in Ukraine that
should not be overlooked. There have been no reports of major scandals erupting
at the district level that could delay the closing of the vote count, as was
common, say, ten years ago. Students no longer have to show their ID and ballot
in order to continue studying, as had happened before the Revolution of
Dignity. This is not to claim that Ukrainian elections are at Nordic levels of
propriety, but the distance that has been covered should be feted, no matter
the result.

We see the possibility of President Zelensky
offering either Voice or Fatherland a very junior position in a coalition in
order to broaden the group’s reach, but it isn’t necessary. Regardless of the
constitution of the majority, in the near future, the questions of who will
become prime minister and speaker of the Verkhovna Rada will become pertinent.