Ukrainian GDP falls 1.3% in 3Q12

Ukraine’s GDP fell 1.3% yoy in 3Q12 (-1.2% qoq in seasonally-adjusted terms), according to a preliminary estimate by UkrStat yesterday. In 2Q12, real GDP growth was 3.0%, and in 1H12 it was +2.5%.

Alexander Paraschiy: The decline in 3Q real GDP was broadly expected, and a 1.3% decline does not look discouraging given that industrial production fell about 4% yoy in the quarter. The 3Q result brings 9M12 GDP growth to about 1.2%, and still leaves room for the chance of Ukraine not reporting a decline in GDP in 2012. We estimate the 2012 real growth will be 0.1%-0.3%.