Ukrainian, German diplomats to meet in Berlin today to discuss Donbas

A Ukrainian diplomatic delegation, led by Foreign Minister
Dmytro Kuleba, will travel to Berlin on June 2 to meet with German diplomats to
discuss ongoing efforts to resolve the armed conflict in Donbas, the Ukrainian
Foreign Ministry confirmed yesterday, as reported by the eurointegration.com.ua
news site. Kuleba will be accompanied by President’s Office Head Andriy Yermak,
Deputy Prime Minister Oleksiy Reznikov, and Defense Minister Andriy Taran,
among others. The German delegation is led by Foreign Minister Heiko Maas,
foreign policy adviser to the chancellor Jan Hecker, and Defense Minister
Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer. Recall on May 13, Russian Presidential
Administration Deputy Head Dmitry Kozak, who leads the Russian delegations in
negotiations on Donbas, arrived in Berlin to discuss the situation with the
war.

In an interview ahead of the visit, Yermak reiterated
his position that representatives of civil society in Donbas, currently
residing in Ukraine, should be included in the peace talks. “If such
representatives of the population should be included in the negotiating
process, then they should be not related to the military actions or murder of
our soldiers, as well as not having anything in common with separatists and
terrorist organizations. These should be recognized as representatives of civil
society,” Yermak said in the interview with Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung and
the Ukrinform news agency.

In his remarks, Yermak practically acknowledged that
efforts to resolve the armed conflict are at a dead end. The Trilateral Contact
Group in Minsk “practically haven’t been negotiations,” while the decisions
reached at the December Normandy Format summit in Paris “practically aren’t
being fulfilled,” Yermak said. He indicated the unlikelihood of his plans to hold local elections in Donbas
in October (along with the rest of the country) in stating they can only occur
under the condition that “foreign armies and illegally armed formations are
removed, and once Ukraine restores control over its border.”

Zenon Zawada: The Zelensky administration’s main means – at this point – of
reanimating the diplomatic process to resolve the war is to create the advisory
council that is being demanded by Russia, but with the involvement of
Ukrainian-selected representatives on Donbas (thought to be pro-Western),
instead of Russian-selected members. We don’t believe the Germans will support
this plan because of the risks involved, the main one being that an advisory
council of any form will set a legal precedent for Russia to shift
responsibility for the war (in creating a separate legal entity representing
Donbas). Also, there is no guarantee that the civil society representatives
won’t adopt pro-Russian positions. So while Yermak can’t say it directly, the
talks are a dead end and we don’t expect any breakthroughs today. We are also
confident that local elections won’t be held in Donbas in October, along with
the rest of Ukraine.