Ukrainian Power Production Grows 3.8% yoy, Consumption Grows 4.0%
11 January 2008
Thermal power plants showed the largest growth of electricity production (7.9% yoy), while combined heat and power plants (CHPPs) showed a 12.2% decrease in output. Internal power consumption grew 4.0% and power export grew 20.5% in 2006. Household consumptions grew the fastest in 2006.
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Output, TWh 2005 2006 change yoy
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Nuclear 88.8 90.2 1.60%
Thermal 75.5 81.5 7.90%
Hydro 12.3 12.85 4.50%
Combined Heat and Power 8.6 7.55 -12.20%
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Total 185.2 192.1 3.80%
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Source: Ministry of Fuel and Energy
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Consumption & Export 2005 2006 change yoy
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Industrial 77.9 79.7 2.30%
Agricultural 3.42 3.47 1.50%
Transport 9.2 9.6 4.30%
Housing 15.3 16.2 5.90%
Households 26.4 28.3 7.20%
Other 5.7 6.2 8.80%
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Total 137.9 143.5 4.00%
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Export 8.3 10 20.50%
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Source: Ministry of Fuel and Energy, Concorde Capital estimates
Alexander Paraschiy: CHPPs significantly reduced their output because most of them are gas-fueled and the hike in gas prices in 2006 forced them to decrease gas use. Alternatively, thermal power plants which are mostly coal-fueled significantly raised output. We believe thermal power plants will remain growth leaders in 2007, boosting demand for coal. Note that power production growth was lower than growth in export and internal consumption (combined 5.0%) – this is because of the reduction of electricity losses between producers and consumers. We expect 5.2% growth of power consumption and export and about 4.0% growth of power production in 2007.
