Ukrainian serving Russian intelligence captured at border

A former Donbas separatist fighter was apprehended the
night of March 14 trying to cross the border from occupied Crimea into the
Ukrainian mainland, the State Border Service reported the next day. Officials
learned that he spent time in Russia and was coaxed by Russian intelligence
officials to fulfill tasks in Ukraine. “This is an ordinary recruiting scheme
used by Russian intelligence services for illegal military formations,” a
border service spokesman said. So far this year, the border service has
apprehended 59 Ukrainian citizens recruited by Russian intelligence services to
cross into Ukraine from the occupied territories to perform tasks.

Zenon Zawada: As we’ve
extensively reported, Russia has been working to build a network of agents and
sleeper cells in Ukraine to engage in sabotage activity. These cells are also
being planned to engage in riots and even military insurgencies. With the
potential for elections-related chaos, this year presents as solid an
opportunity as any for Russia to organize violent activity to undermine
Ukrainian statehood.

Our base-case scenario is for the presidential
elections to occur in conformity with international standards of being free and
fair, gaining an OSCE endorsement. Though this weekend’s protests were violent
(with another possible repeat on Saturday), we expect the post-elections
demonstrations – likely to protest alleged vote manipulations by the president
– to be peaceful in order to draw as broad support as possible. But we don’t
expect more than several thousand to participate. That means that stability
should be maintained.

However, the potential for post-elections chaos
will become significant in a scenario in which (1) exit polls show a victory
for Tymoshenko or Zelenskiy, (2) Poroshenko refuses to concede defeat and (3)
the OSCE withholds its endorsement. We don’t see this scenario as likely, but
if it occurs, the Russians will be looking to activate their agents and cells,
which they have been building for the last five years, to cause further
destabilization.