UN General Assembly recognizes Crimea as occupied, Russia as occupier

The United Nations General Assembly voted on Nov. 15 to support a resolution that recognizes the Russian Federation government as having illegally occupied Crimea whose annexation will not be recognized, Ukraine Permanent Representative to the UN reported. The resolution recognizes Crimea as temporarily occupied territory, which was supported by 73 nations and opposed by 23, including Russia and Belarus. The resolution condemns the restrictions on human rights in Crimea and discriminatory measures and practices against its residents,  particularly ethnic minorities.

The U.S. government imposed sanctions against six more members of the Russian parliament representing Crimea, the Treasury Department reported on Nov. 14. Almost a week earlier, the EU Council imposed sanctions against these same six individuals.

The situation in Crimea is equivalent to an international armed conflict between Ukraine and Russia, according to a preliminary investigation prepared by the prosecution of the International Criminal Court in the Hague. “The current international armed conflict began not later than Feb. 26, when the Russian Federation activated a part of its Armed Forces to gain control of parts of Ukrainian territory without the agreement of the Ukrainian government,” the report said.

Zenon Zawada: Western institutions are accelerating measures to prevent a situation in which Russia’s illegal Crimean annexation would be legally recognized, particularly under a Donald Trump presidency. We can expect a flurry of similar actions ahead of his Jan. 20 inauguration, including a U.S. Senate vote to affirm legislatively Crimea-related sanctions that had been adopted by U.S. President Barack Obama.

We believe a highly possibly scenario is sanctions related to Crimea being removed by Western governments without legally recognizing the annexation, as awkward as that may be. In fact, a compromise with Russia would have to look that way if Western governments are to preserve the inviolability of their system of international law. We believe this can start to happen in the second half of 2017 after nationalists make gains in more European elections and “Ukraine fatigue” sets in deeper in Europe.