Russian troop movements in southern and western Russia
since the end of the Zapad 2021 military exercises ended in September, washingtonpost.com
reported on Oct. 30. Some units did not return to their home bases after the
exercises, and others are deploying again. According to the Washington Post,
western analysts estimate that there are currently 80,000-90,000 Russian troops
along Ukraine’s border after the Zapad 2021 exercises.
Recall, Russian President Putin stated at the Valdai Discussion Clublast week that even though Russia cannot stop Ukraine from joining NATO, the
Russian government was preparing steps to lessen the effects of the
integration.
Some analysts in Ukraine are concerned that Putin
would use last week’s destruction of a piece of Russian heavy artillery by a
Ukrainian drone and the Ukrainian military’s incursion into the village of
Staromaryivka as reasons for launching a military offensive.
James Hydzik: A total of
90,000 Russian troops along the border is not a signal of an all-out military
offensive into the whole of Ukraine, if the estimates from spring 2021 are an
indication. However, the military build-up is generally a cause for concern.
As for the drone attack and incursion into the
village, which the Ukrainian military termed as being in a grey zone along the
line of contact, these would have started the offensive already if they were so
troublesome.