Volker endorses U.S. sending defensive weapons to Ukrainian army

Kurt Volker, the U.S. special representative to
Ukraine, told the BBC in an interview published this morning that he supports
the U.S. government supplying weapons to the Ukrainian army. The U.S.
government is actively reviewing whether to send weapons, he said. Success in
establishing peace in Donbas requires a “new strategic dialogue with Russia,”
Volker said. Arming Ukrainian government forces could change Moscow’s approach,
he said, adding that he didn’t think the move would be provocative.

“Defensive weapons, ones that would allow Ukraine to
defend itself and to take out tanks, for example, would act to help to stop
Russia from threatening Ukraine,” Volker said in the interview, adding, “I
think that the argument that it would be provocative to Russia or emboldening
of Ukraine is just getting it backwards.”

Zenon Zawada: There are
few better ways to undermine attempts at “new strategic dialogue” and provoke
the Russians into military escalation than for the U.S. government to
distribute armaments – defensive or otherwise – to the Ukrainian army. Given
that the Russian government doesn’t recognize Ukrainian sovereignty on a de
facto basis, the introduction of American weapons would be interpreted as an
American military escalation against Russia, no matter how
“backwards” this logic might be.

Given that Volker is a knowledgable diplomat and
probably understands this, we believe his comments are intended to make the
Russian leadership nervous enough about the prospects of escalated warfare to
begin to seriously pursue the new strategic dialogue. Only Volker and the
Americans need to be ready to back up their words should the Russians call
their bluff.

Indeed recent statements by U.S. and Ukrainian
officials seem to indicate a greater willingness to pursue a military solution
to the conflict, particularly before 2019. That’s when elections in Ukraine
will be held, which could be a source of enormous destabilization. That’s also
when large debts will have to be repaid.