Volker outlines two options for Russia in Donbas

The Russian government has two options in resolving the conflict in Donbas, Kurt Volker, the U.S. special representative to Ukraine, told a press briefing at the U.S. State Department on Nov. 6. “If they want to create a frozen conflict – like in Abkhazia, South Ossetia or Transnistria – then it will cost them a lot,” he said, as reported by the voanews.com news site. “The alternative is when Russia withdraws its forces and supports the introduction of UN peacekeepers, which will bring everyone peace and will enable moving forward in implementing Minsk.” Volker rejected the possibility of turning the situation into an extended conflict. “The international community doesn’t want another Cyprus,” he said. I don’t know how many years peacekeepers are in Cyprus. I don’t think Ukraine wants that. It wants to renew sovereignty on its own territory, which is why it has incentive to implement the Minsk Accords.”
 
Zenon Zawada: We believe the Ukrainian parliamentary elections, scheduled for October 2019, will be the turning point for Russia in Ukraine. If Russian-oriented parties fare poorly, we believe in even chances that Russia will begin to fulfill the Minsk Accords, possibly under UN supervision. If Russian-oriented parties perform well and form the opposition, then the Russians will be emboldened to continue their campaign of dismembering the Ukrainian state. We don’t expect Russia to make any attempts at peace before this time, particularly with presidential elections forthcoming. Quite the opposite, we expect Russia to intensify aggression ahead of the elections.