Zatulin becomes close adviser to Putin Donbas pointman Kozak

Russian Duma member Konstantin Zatulin, among the main
Russian World ideologues, has become a close adviser to Dmitry Kozak since the
latter was appointed in January as President Putin’s pointman on resolving the
war in Donbas, reported Valeriy Kondratiuk, the head of the Foreign
Intelligence Service of Ukraine, in an article for the dt.ua news site
published on Aug. 1. In this capacity, Zatulin has urged Kozak to use the
negotiating process to eventually implement a Georgian or Moldovan model in
Ukraine in which Donbas is practically independent, formally a part of the
Ukrainian state and is capable of influencing the politics of the Ukrainian
government, the article said. “Until then, I hope the Americans will get tired
of being involved with [Ukraine], will get tired of throwing resources into
this furnace and will wave its hand. And they’ll remove some nationalist and a
more-or-less balanced regime will come. Wait for its evolution and build
relations with it,” Zatulin reportedly said, though the context was not
disclosed.

Ukraine should propose a “special administration
system” in Donbas to help resolve the armed conflict, said Leonid Kravchuk, the
former president, who was appointed last week as head of the Ukrainian
delegation to the Minsk talks, as reported by the Interfax-Ukraine news agency.
Such an administration would offer more rights and possibilities within the
Ukrainian legal framework, he said. The reason for that is the situation in
Donbas “is quite complicated” and its administration can’t imitate the schemes
in Ukraine’s other regions, he said. Moreover, solutions need to be developed
among political advisers, only after which they can be affirmed by top leaders.
“An administration, but not a status. That’s already a compromise. We are
already looking for realistic approaches to resolve the issue,” he said.
Kravchuk also mentioned the need for a free economic zone in Donbas.

Zenon Zawada: The notion
that the Kremlin is pursuing a scenario in Ukraine similar to Georgia and
Moldova has been apparent for several years now (after the Novorossiya project
failed). We don’t see it working in Ukraine for the main reason that the
domestic pro-Western forces are too strong, and the Western powers are too
committed. This was demonstrated when President Zelensky (who fits Zatulin’s
model of a “balanced regime”) attempted to offer compromises in Donbas (which
were widely viewed as capitulation), but Western powers stopped him behind the
scenes.

Any notion that the West will abandon Ukraine is not
realistic either. Ukraine has become a top foreign policy priority for the U.S.
Democratic Party in particular, which will come to dominate U.S. politics as
President Trump’s influence continues to wane. But we believe the Kremlin has
other scenarios for retaking Ukraine, including its federalization plans. And
we see internal strife and political disintegration as a more likely scenario
than a pro-Russian president or parliament emerging.

As for Kravchuk, we don’t see the Kremlin accepting
any scenario that doesn’t ensure the role of Donbas as not only its anchor in
Ukraine, but a constant obstacle in Kyiv’s Euro-Atlantic integration efforts.
We don’t see Kravchuk accomplishing any breakthroughs in Donbas. The best
scenario there is that Ukraine is able to extend the ongoing ceasefire and keep
the shootings to a minimum, while it continues to build its military and
integrate with the West.