Zelensky enjoys ratings bump following Paris talks

Ukrainian President Zelensky enjoyed a bump in his
poll ratings following his performance at the Normandy Format summit in Paris
on Dec. 9. About 62% of the Ukrainian public is satisfied with Zelensky’s work
as president, compared to 53% in the third week of November, according to poll
figures published on Dec. 19. About 67% of the public trusts Zelensky as a
politician, followed by Parliamentary Speaker Dmytro Razumkov and Voice Party
leader Sviatoslav Vakarchuk, both enjoying 28% of the public’s trust.

About 34.6% of the public would vote for The People’s
Servant party, which has formed the parliamentary majority, if elections were
held now, according to the poll. About 8.4% would vote for the pro-Putin
Opposition Platform For Life party, 6.1% supports the European Solidarity party
led by former President Poroshenko, and 5.3% would vote for the Fatherland
party that opposes the creation of a farmland market. 

The poll was conducted of 2,500 respondents between
Dec. 13 and 17 by the Rating Sociological Group.

Zenon Zawada: We are
confident that this is a bump in what is otherwise an inevitable further
decline in Zelensky’s poll ratings. Not only has he been unable to form a consistent
and effective domestic policy, but Zelensky will be facing immense pressure to
capitulate to Russian demands in 2020. Other important facts to be drawn from
the poll include The People’s Servant poll ratings to be more-or-less shadowing
Zelensky’s ratings. That indicates that the fate of not only the party, but the
entire parliamentary coalition, depends on public trust in Zelensky.

It’s also important to observe that there are no other
popular alternative individuals or political parties on the political scene. In
short, a political vacuum will emerge if Zelensky is unsuccessful in meeting
the enormous challenges he faces next year.

We are confident the Kremlin understands that if it
discredits Zelensky in the eyes of the public, it will inherit a political
vacuum in Ukraine that it can use to its advantage. That can consist of working
to install a loyal government in Kyiv or sponsoring more separatist activity.

So we expect the Kremlin and its allies to be working
hard in 2020 to discredit Zelensky in the eyes of the Ukrainian public. We see
the inability to reach an agreement on an all-for-all prisoner exchange at the
Dec. 18 Trilateral Contact Group talks in Minsk as the start of this concerted
effort to discredit Zelensky.