Zelensky identifies next withdrawal targets, draws support from NATO, Russia

Withdrawals in the next militarized area, the town of
Petrivske in the Luhansk region, will begin on Nov. 4 if a seven-day ceasefire
in the district is upheld, Ukrainian President Zelensky told a joint press
conference on Oct. 31 with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg. “From our
end, we have begun withdrawals in Katerynivka,” Zelensky said, for the first
time identifying this militarized area along the separation line in the Luhansk
region (of Donbas). “If everything will be safe, and in Petrivske too, during
the week, then it seems to me we should start withdrawal in Petrivske too on
Nov. 4.”

The same day, Stoltenberg addressed Ukraine’s
parliament to call for the implementation of the law on national security
approved last year, with parliamentary oversight over security agencies and
defense institutions. He also called upon reforming the Security Service of
Ukraine (SBU). In addressing students the same day at the Odesa Naval Academy,
Stoltenberg stressed Russia doesn’t have the right to influence Ukraine’s
decisions on NATO integration. “Sometimes we have the impression that Russia
decides on whether Ukraine should be an alliance member or not,” he said.
“Russia doesn’t have a voice. It doesn’t have any legal basis to influence such
a decision since this is fixated in documents, which were signed by Russia, by
the way.”

The situation in Donbas has truly changed with the
emergence of Volodymyr Zelensky as president, with relations between Russia and
Ukraine “moving in the right direction,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov
said on Oct. 31, as reported by the TASS news agency. Agreements to conduct
withdrawals in three pilot areas – Stanytsia Luhanska, Zolote and Petrivske –
were reached at the Normandy Format summit in Berlin in September but it seemed
as though former President Poroshenko “didn’t want to withdraw forces and
hardware, but deceive the world community” when he named what Lavrov referred
to as “artificial reasons” to delay the process.

The Russian government expects Zelensky to fulfill his
decrees on withdrawing forces in Zolote, which began on Oct. 30, and along the
entire separation line in Donbas, Lavrov said. “Withdrawals occurred in
Stanytsia Luhanska, albeit not immediately and not easily. The withdrawal of
forces and hardware has begun in Zolote. National battalions – so-called
volunteers where ultra-radicals have gathered – are stating that they aren’t
going anywhere and won’t allow access to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. But we
hope Zelensky, as the commander in chief, will ensure the fulfillment of his
orders.”

Zenon Zawada: Zelensky is
moving full speed ahead with military withdrawals in the Donbas war zone. He is
doing so without any apparent opposition from Ukraine’s paramilitaries, with
whom he must have reached some kind of agreement in light of their fierce
threats in the weeks prior.

In withdrawing forces, Zelensky has made evident that
besides support from Russia, he has the full support of the West, including the
EU (having gained an endorsement of his actions from German Chancellor Merkel
this week) and NATO, having gained Stoltenberg’s approval during his two-day
visit to Ukraine this week.

The only thing now that stop this process is
opposition from Ukraine’s pro-Western forces. Civil activists and politicians
have been relatively quiet this week, which leads us to believe they are
meeting and planning their next actions, likely to include mass protests. But
so far, it looks they don’t have a critical mass among the public to interfere
with the withdrawal process. The paramilitaries certainly don’t.

Various reasons could be offered as to why
Poroshenko didn’t engage in these withdrawals himself. It’s worth considering
factors beyond his direct control, such as the Russians feel more comfortable
in dealing with Zelensky, making them more willing to cooperate from their end.
In addition, Zelensky was willing to begin withdrawals while fire was still
occurring, while Poroshenko might have been unwilling to do so. But it’s still
Poroshenko’s view that peace with Russia will result in Ukraine’s long-term
loss, which is a widely held view among Ukraine’s intelligentsia, but not so much
with the general public.