Zelensky is Ukraine’s only trusted politician, poll says

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is the only
Ukrainian politician who is trusted more than distrusted by the public,
according to the latest poll released by the Rating Sociological Group. Eight
months after being elected, Zelensky enjoys 59% of the public’s trust (compared
to 67% in December). About 32% don’t trust Zelensky, compared to 25% in
December. Nearly two-thirds of the public that watched Zelensky’s New Year’s
Eve speech viewed it positively, the poll said, compared to 22% with a neutral
view and 13% who had a negative impression. In that speech, Zelensky called for
unity among Ukrainians despite cultural differences.

The second-most popular Ukrainian politician is Parliamentary
Speaker Dmytro Razumkov, who is loyal to Zelensky. He has 26% of the public’s
trust, compared to 44% who don’t trust him. Yuriy Boyko, the head of the
pro-Putin Opposition Platform For Life party, has the trust of 25% of the
public, compared to 56% that distrusts him. Sviatoslav Vakarchuk, the head of
the neoliberal Voice party, has 22% of public trust, compared to 62% that
distrusts him.

The policy change that the public most expects from Zelensky
is halting the warfare in Donbas, which was identified by 64% of those polled.
About 45% identified fighting corruption as a top priority, and 30% said they
expect renewing industry to be prioritized. The poll was conducted between Jan.
22 and 26 involving 2,500 respondents.

Zenon Zawada: Zelensky’s
trust among the public is gradually falling, as was widely expected, but not as
steeply as it could have fallen. Certainly, the two exchanges of war prisoners
with Russia earned Zelensky significant respect. But this political capital
will be spent by the year end, when the Zelensky administration is expected to
have resolved the warfare in Donbas, in one way or another.

This poll confirms what we have consistently said since Zelensky’s inaugurationas president in May, which is that how he handles resolving the war in Donbas
– and how he handles the reaction to his measures – will make or break his
presidency. It could also make or break Ukrainian statehood altogether. It’s
impossible to project even the likelihood of a peace agreement being reached
this year, but we are confident the Zelensky team will go to great lengths to
reach one. And any peace deal will be labeled as a capitulation to Russia by
the pro-Western opposition.

A rather shocking development is the rise in trust for
the pro-Kremlin Boyko, overtaking the Western-educated Vakarchuk for third
place in the ranking. We attribute this to disappointed Russophiles beginning
to abandon Zelensky for his inconsistent policies on Russia. Meanwhile,
Vakarchuk’s Voice faction proposed in November abandoning the Minsk Accords and
freezing the Donbas conflict, which is widely viewed as not only risky for
Ukraine’s international reputation, but also unrealistic. To us, Boyko’s rise
and Vakarchuk’s decline in this poll signifies that Ukrainians want an end to
the overall enmity with Russia and renewed relations.

It’s worth considering that the Rating poll asks
what policies the public most expects from Zelensky, not whether it supports
his plans in these spheres nor what it wants to see prioritized. As a result,
the western regions – that are most skeptical of Zelensky – are most expecting
him to act on resolving the war in Donbas (68% compared to 60% of eastern
Ukrainians). These western residents most expect he will take decisive action,
but they do not support the course he is likely to pursue, which they are
likely to view as a capitulation to Russia.