Zelensky submits referendum legislation to parliament

Ukrainian President Zelensky submitted to parliament
on June 9 a bill to organize a national referendum. The issues to be put for a
popular vote include amendments to 38 constitutional statutes, those of
national significance, changes to Ukraine’s territory and laws that have
expired, according to the legislation’s text. The referendum can’t apply to issues
of taxation, fiscal policy or amnesty. The legislation creates the ability to
introduce electronic procedures in organizing and holding the referendum,
including electronic voting.

Zenon Zawada: Among the
likely issues to be voted upon is whether to allow the sale of Ukrainian
farmland to foreigners after the scheduled launch of the market to domestic
entities this year. The legislation creating the market required such a
referendum. 

We see a potential threat that the referendum will
include issues related to the war in Donbas. Given how eager Zelensky and
Andriy Yermak have been to resolve the armed conflict with Russia, we can’t
rule out that among the issues to be included will be a proposal to make some
kind of compromise/capitulation to Russia possible.

It’s possible the Kremlin will feed referendum
proposals through its Donbas pointman Dmitry Kozak in his frequent interactions with Yermak. That’s
particularly the case given that the Russian proposal for advisory councils –
to include Russian proxies in Donbas – has failed.

Any referendum proposal on highly sensitive issues,
such as resolving the war in Donbas or a new status for the Russian language,
would play into the Kremlin strategy of getting Ukraine to implode from within.
So we see large threats to domestic stability if such issues surface.