EU mission sets deadline, urging Ukraine to pass critical legislation today

The EU diplomatic mission led by former European Parliament Chair Pat Cox and former Polish President Aleksander Kwasniewski set a deadline of Wednesday November 13 for fulfilling the EU requirements for signing the Association Agreement, including arranging for the release of former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, the Kommersant-Ukraina newspaper reported on November 8. The Cox-Kwasniewski mission is scheduled to deliver its final report to the European Parliament on November 14 (according to Ukrayinska Pravda) or November 15 (according to European Parliament MP Pawel Zalewski).

Ukraine’s parliament failed to approve any bills on November 7 that are required by the EU for signing the agreement. The ruling Party of Regions is willing to vote on the law on the state prosecution and election-related reforms, but hasn’t supported any of four bills submitted to resolve the Tymoshenko conflict, Kommersant reported. In particular, the Party of Regions has refused to support, or even offer amendments, to the so-called “Labunska bill,” which was endorsed by the EU and the Ukrainian opposition and would allow Tymoshenko to gain her freedom without a pardon.

Opposition MPs gathered signatures to hold an extraplenary session next week, but Party of Regions MP Mykhaylo Chechetov dismissed the effort as pointless, stating that a working group has to meet to iron out a bill to arrange for Tymoshenko’s release that satisfies all the sides. Moreover, given that committee work is scheduled for next week, it’s unclear whether the Party of Regions has the will or ability to gather enough MPs for an extraplenary session. Tymoshenko lead defense attorney Serhiy Vlasenko dismissed the working group proposal, stating that it’s Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych who will make the ultimate decision. “So far it looks as though the government is trying to undermine European integration,” he said.

The Ukrayinska Pravda news site, citing its anonymous sources, reported on November 7 that the Party of Regions has received the command from the Presidential Administration to vote for the Labunska bill on November 8, which is the last parliamentary session scheduled before the EU Foreign Affairs Council is scheduled to vote on November 18 on whether to pursue the Association Agreement with Ukraine. The bill would be approved in the first reading and then modified in a working group involving the majority and opposition, Ukrayinska Pravda said. But hours after that report, Party of Regions MP Oleg Tsariov denied its verity in an interview with the 5 Kanal television network.

Zenon Zawada: Ukraine’s EU Association prospects look negative, at this point. The agreement hinges on parliament engaging in intense legislative activity today, including approving the Labunska bill in its first reading, as well as the other legislation. Even then, the Labunska bill’s final approval will hinge on an extraplenary session next week, which we view as unlikely given the indifference and inertia demonstrated by the Party of Regions this week. The government’s actions have been an enormous disappointment for Western-oriented Ukrainians.

If Yanukovych doesn’t lead a last-minute drive to pass legislation today, we can pretty much put shelve the Ukraine-EU Association Agreement for at least two years, if not more. He retains the power to pardon Tymoshenko at any given whim, which would remove all hurdles, but we see him waiting until the very last minute to use that card, which we also view as unlikely.