EU parliament committee supports Ukraine pact only if requirements met

The European Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee released a draft of its annual report on October 10 in which it recommends that the EU’s executive organs sign association agreements with Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia at the Eastern Partnership summit in Vilnius, the Kommersant-Ukraine newspaper reported on October 11. The report urges “the signing and ratification” with Ukraine only if its government fulfills all 11 requirements outlined by the EU leadership, as well as arranges for the released of imprisoned former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko. The draft will be reviewed for approval by the European Parliament on October 21-24.

During his visit to Kyiv, German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle declined a request by the Kommersant newspaper to name the deadline by which Tymoshenko must be released. Earlier, EU leaders said she must be released by October 21, when the EU Foreign Ministers Council will meet in Luxembourg. A Polish MP reported that the decision will instead be made at their November 18 meeting, just ten days before the summit.

Zenon Zawada: The EU parliament’s foreign affairs committee is playing by the EU rules in reiterating the need for the Ukrainian government to fulfill all EU requirements. Yet it’s a foregone conclusion the Ukrainian government won’t do that entirely (even excluding the Tymoshenko issue), which hasn’t dissuaded the EU leadership from continuing to pursue the Association Agreement. Meanwhile, it’s no surprise that Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych is waiting for the absolute last minute for making a decision on Tymoshenko. It’s possible he won’t release her, but we think it’s more likely that he will.

Even if he doesn’t, the wording of the parliamentary committee’s draft stresses the “signing and ratification” of the agreement if Ukraine fulfills its requirements. If the EU decides not to sign, even with Tymoshenko incarcerated, it will lose its ability to influence the Ukrainian government to pursue further reforms during the subsequent months of ratification. Therefore, we expect the EU will sign the agreement, at minimum as a means of maintaining its application of the carrot-and-stick approach to the Ukrainians in adopting EU legal and economic standards.