EU, Russia intensify measures to attract Ukraine to their political unions

The Ukrainian government has until late October to show tangible progress and specific efforts in meeting the requirements for signing the Association Agreement, EU Commissioner for Enlargement and European Neighborhood Policy Stefan Fule said in an interview with Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty published on July 23.

 

“I see that the process is continuing and there are positive tendencies, though I can’t say the result has been achieved,” Fule said. “But again, it’s up to EU member-states to offer a final evaluation, probably at the end of October. I really hope – and I told the government this thought today – that it doesn’t lose the opportunity that it has from today to the end of October to offer a result on the issues that remain.”

 

Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin plans to discuss with Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych this weekend “the most painful issue” of Ukraine’s integration prospects into the Eurasian Union, the UNIAN news agency reported on July 22, citing a high-placed source in the Russian government. “Russia isn’t hiding its unenthusiastic attitude towards Ukraine drawing closer to the EU, particularly the signing of the Association Agreement,” the source said. “Russian partners are concerned primarily with the economic consequences of such a step. It’s believed in Russia that introducing such a trade regime between Ukraine and the EU will bring significant complications in trade between Ukraine and the Customs Union.”

 

They will discuss how the Ukrainian government can best use its observer status in the Customs Union (the precursor to the Eurasian Union) and how the Ukrainian representative can work within the Eurasian Economic Commission (the executive body of the Customs Union), the report said.

 

Zenon Zawada: Fule’s statement is a large concession to the Ukrainian government, revealing just how intent the EU is to have Ukraine sign the Association Agreement, despite all the violations to Western values that we’ve seen in the last few months. The EU leadership had indicated earlier that the Ukrainian government has a series of deadlines to reach, as early as May, in passing legislation and implementing reforms. It’s clear the EU has abandoned its hope that these deadlines will be met, yet it’s still holding the door open for the Ukrainian government.

 

With his statement, Fule is also buying time to convince Yanukovych to arrange for the release of former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko. In this sense, the Yanukovych administration has correctly assessed its ability to test the EU’s patience and indulge in its strategy of playing the EU against the Russian Federation in trying to gain concessions on its own foreign policy goals.

 

Indeed the next few months will offer observers a sophisticated geopolitical chess match between Brussels and Moscow, the ending for which the Ukraine government itself doesn’t even know today. This weekend presents the Russians with their turn in the chess match.

 

We expect Putin will appeal to the Ukrainian public on cultural and religious unity (at the commemoration of the 1,025-year anniversary of the christening of Kyiv-Rus) and discuss trade and business with Yanukovych behind the scenes. Putin’s hope is that public pressure from Ukraine’s Russian-oriented population – which is Yanukovych’s electorate – will influence him in what will be a historic moment in geopolitics.

 

It’s our position that the Eurasian Union has few benefits to offer Ukraine’s oligarchy, which includes the pragmatic Yanukovych, and Putin will have to offer Yanukovych an opportunity at personal enrichment in order to get him interested. Even then, Yanukovych will find it difficult to trust Putin’s ability to ensure his assets are secure.