21 December 2015
The European Union will officially announce today the decision of the EU Council reached on Dec. 19 to extend sanctions unconditionally against Russia until July 31, 2016, as confirmed on television by Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko. The decision was approved without discussion and involves restrictions in the spheres of banking, military, investment and energy.
Zenon Zawada: The sanctions are the main weapon being employed by the West and any weakening would have been viewed as capitulation. Certain EU member-states, led by Italy, have indicated they’re interest in reconsidering the sanctions, but they have been kept at bay so far.
We expect opponents of sanctions can be emboldened by the summer if the crisis with economic migrants and war refugees intensifies, prompting further support for the right-wing parties that seek to restrict immigration, particularly from the Islamic world. For the most part, these forces are aligned with Russia. Without that political game-changer in Europe, we expect the sanctions will remain in place for as long as it takes to force Putin to back out of both Donbas and Crimea. His refusal to do so thus far should be of great concern to the world’s leaders going into 2016.