Expanded Russian invasion absolutely possible, Ukrainian MP says

A full-scale war between Russia and Ukraine is
“absolutely” possible, Dmytro Yarosh, the head of the Ukrainian Volunteer Army,
said in an interview published on the pravda.com.ua news site on Jan. 15. “In
my view, Russia doesn’t have the strength for a full-scale occupation,” he
said. “They can conduct localized operations from Crimea to Kakhovka and
Melitopol, and then break open a so-called ‘land corridor’ through Mariupol.
They can conduct air operations in the Odesa, Mykolayiv and Kherson regions.”

A second possible frontline is Russia’s border with
the Kharkiv region, Yarosh said. “The ideal scheme for them is these two
strikes from the north and the south,” he said. “Accordingly, an attack on Dnipro
and shutting down our Armed Forces in the Joint Forces Operation zone. Cutting
off the front and destroying Ukraine’s main forces. Will they be able to do
this? We will fight in a dignified way.”

Ukrainian paramilitary forces are conducting mobile-saboteur
training for an expanded Russian invasion, Yarosh said. Meanwhile, a Ukrainian
military operation to return parts of Donbas “is absolutely realistic,” Yarosh
said. “Of course, with certain diplomatic support. This is realistic to do
within five years. Without large losses. We will enter there, conduct a small
cleansing and everything will fall into place,” he said.

In the event of a Ukrainian capitulation to Russia,
bringing the country back under its influence, nationalist forces will resort
to military means rather than peaceful protests, as with the previous maidans,
he said. “No one is going to be burning tires at that point, of course. People
have enough in their possession to act more effectively,” he said, referring to
armaments. “But that is not the desired option because Russia will take
advantage of this again.”

Russian state television reported on Yarosh’s remarks
by twisting them out of context and making them appear as violent threats of
genocide and war. “Yarosh said two clear things today. The first is that
political killings under the guise of cleansings in Ukraine are necessary, and
there will possibly be killings of members of parliaments of the Opposition
Bloc,” editor Igor Korotchenko said on Jan. 15 on the Rossiya-1 state television
network. “Second is that he is ready for terrorist acts, for killings and mass
cleansings of the population in Donbas. That is called genocide.”

Zenon Zawada: We agree
with Yarosh’s view. Russia can’t occupy Ukraine, but it can destroy Ukraine’s
military capabilities, as key Russian experts have already advised doing. Russia can
also decide to expand its military occupation to Ukraine’s southeastern
regions, claiming it is liberating them from “Ukrainian fascism,” as part of
its narrative. Recent evidence, offered by experts and polls,
indicates that the residents of these regions will pose minimal resistance to
Russian intervention, with the possible exception of the city of Dnipro.
Ukraine’s second- and third-largest cities, Kharkiv and Odesa respectively,
have large Russophile contingents.

We also believe its possible that Russia will have
recruited enough sleeper cells in these cities and regions to cause
destabilization during the elections, without requiring the involvement of
Russian military forces. Though the mayors of Kharkiv and Odesa back the
president, the Russian-oriented forces can refuse to recognize the March
presidential election results. Riots and insurgencies in the style of the
Yellow Vests in France are also possible in these areas, with Kremlin backing.