Fillon to compete in April 2017 French presidential elections

Francois Fillon, a former French prime minister who called for lifting economic sanctions related to Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea, won the second-round runoff in the French center-right presidential primaries held on Nov. 27. Fillon, who also called for closer military cooperation with Russia, will compete in the April first-round elections against anti-immigrant candidate Marine Le Pen and Leftist incumbent Francois Hollande, among other candidates.

Zenon Zawada: Two of the three likely winners of France’s presidential elections next year favor removing sanctions against Russia related to the Crimean annexation. So with Donald Trump’s election in the U.S., there is a clear trend towards these sanctions starting to be lifted in the second half of 2017 in Western legislatures, particularly in Western Europe. If this trend continues, the sanctions could be fully lifted as early as 2018.

The possibility of sanctions being lifted is a very helpful “carrot-on-a-stick” to keep the Russians more-or-less behaved in occupied Donbas for the next two years. We don’t see the conflict escalating beyond its current low level if the Russians have incentive to behave well in order to get the sanctions removed. By that time, the Ukrainian defense can be boosted enough to maake the Russians think twice about further aggression.