Five-phase summary plan for emerging from severe quarantine is published

Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal published on Apr. 24 a
chart summarizing the Ukrainian government’s plan for emerging from the severe
quarantine, which “may take effect on May 11 under the conditions of favorable
epidemiological stability,” he wrote on his Telegram channel. The plan consists
of five phases, each of which has precise indicators and depends on the
infection rate. The first phase will take effect once control is established on
the spread of the coronavirus, partly based on the daily change in the
infection rate not exceeding 5% for ten consecutive days, according to the
chart. It also involves ensuring the accessibility of medical supplies.
Restrictions will be removed for public parks and squares, forest parks and
recreation zones. They will also be removed for certain cosmetology businesses,
training camps for team sports, wholesale and retail trade of non-food goods,
cafes (on a takeout basis), car washes, bicycle shops and rentals, notaries,
lawyers and auditors. The cabinet had previously identified May 12 as the start
of the five phases.

The second phase will take effect once infections
drop, based on a daily demonstrated decline in infection rates for ten
consecutive days, at the same time that recovery rates either remain stable or
improve. It also involves resetting Ukraine’s healthcare system. Restrictions
will be removed for businesses engaged in basic public needs, the education of
graduating high school classes, the preparation for standardized testing, all
restaurants (for takeout only), outdoor movie theatres, fitness centers, hotels
and sports events involving no more than 50 participants (without viewers).
Ukraine may bypass the second phase directly for the third or fourth phases if
a fast drop in coronavirus infections is recorded, Chief Medical Office of
Ukraine Viktor Liashko said in an Apr. 26 statement.

The Ukrainian government reacted to the coronavirus
threat in a timely manner and began work on mobilizing local, national and
international efforts, said on Apr. 24 Florence Gillette, the head of the
delegation of the International Committee of the Red Cross to Ukraine.
“Regarding humanitarian issues, the Red Cross wants to thank the government for
foreseeing the need, from the very start, to adapt preventative measures
against COVID-19 in such a way that continues the support of humanitarian
efforts,” she said in a statement.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Zelensky endorsed a
proposal by the Luhansk regional administration for the state to provide insurance
to doctors that treat COVID-19 patients, and for mobile brigades that have
contact with them. “I know that this insurance is aimed at both the
consequences of the coronavirus, and 140 other diseases. It’s inexpensive and
the region’s doctors are very thankful. This is a wonderful example of how
local government finds good and quality solutions during the epidemic. I
request reviewing the possibility of such insurance for all of Ukraine,”
Zelensky said in an Apr. 24 statement.

Coronavirus infections rose by 392 cases, or 4.5%,
from the prior day, to a total of 9,009 as of noon, Apr. 27, according to the
Center for Public Health of the Health Ministry of Ukraine. An estimated 220
people have died from the COVID-19 disease, an increase of 11 cases from the
prior day. Recovered patients rose by 24 cases to 864 in total. In the city of
Mariupol near the Donbas war frontline, 19 of 22 coronavirus infections on Apr.
25-26 were among intensive care medical workers, local authorities reported. An
estimated 101 medical workers were infected on Apr. 25, the Health Ministry
reported the next morning, including 10 in the capital city of Kyiv. A doctor
in Odesa, who is reported to have infected 32 of his medical colleagues, died
on Apr. 25, a local official reported on Facebook.

Zenon Zawada: The
five-phase plan to emerge from the coronavirus quarantine looks reasonable,
especially Liashko’s proposal that certain phases be skipped if infection rates
remain low. The daily infection growth rate is now below 5%, which is promising
for a quicker emergence from the quarantine. The biggest problem with the
quarantine plan remains the proposal to wait 30 days until after European
countries open their borders. We believe the
government will reduce that sharply if the current positive trends continue,
and the public grows impatient.

Ukraine’s biggest problem with the coronavirus illness
itself remains the high infection rate among medical workers. This is a
significant problem for a healthcare system that was in poor condition even
before the pandemic struck Ukraine. Recently announced pay raises and insurance
coverage will help to prevent a collapse of the medical system on this front.

Meanwhile, the five-phase plan foresees a reset of
the healthcare system yet again, just a few years after that had been done by
former Health Minister Ulana Suprun, a U.S. native and radiologist. Ukraine’s
pro-Western and NGO community fully supported Suprun’s efforts and will resist
proposals under the current administration, already reporting on alleged
renewed corruption under the current Health Minister, Maksym Stepanov. Another
healthcare reset has the potential to provoke further political instability in
Ukraine.