Forces complete withdrawal at control checkpoint on Donbas conflict line

Ukraine’s Armed Forces and Russian-backed fighters
completed the withdrawal of their forces from the conflict line at the
Stanytsia Luhanska control checkpoint, the OSCE special monitoring mission
confirmed on June 30. The withdrawal began on June 26 under OSCE oversight on
both sides of the line. It fulfills an agreement reached in September 2016
requiring fighters to retreat one kilometer from three control checkpoints
along the conflict line.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky characterized
the withdrawal as “the first step in a stable ceasefire along the entire
conflict line, which occurred thanks to the unblocking of the Minsk process,”
he said in a video posted on Facebook on July 1, adding that “a fragile hope
for the beginning of the conclusion of the hot phase of the war has emerged.”
Only time and concrete steps can confirm to everyone that the sides will
fulfill their obligations, he said, calling the public to keep calm from
political provocations. “There’s no betrayal,” he said, pre-empting criticism
from political opponents. “Unfortunately, there also isn’t a victory. But this
is our first small real success, it seems to me.”

U.S. Special Envoy to Ukraine Kurt Volker tweeted at
the withdrawal’s beginning on June 26 that it’s a “good step” by Ukraine. “Now
it’s up to Russia to take reciprocal further steps to strengthen ceasefire
including withdrawing heavy weapons and disarming illegal armed formations,” he
tweeted.

Russian-backed fighters continued to shoot at
Ukrainian forces this weekend using mortars in the Mariupol region of the
conflict line, the Joint Operation Forces press center reported on June 29. The
same day, the Defense Ministry reported Russian-backed forces firing grenades
from drones in the same region.

Zenon Zawada: This is the
first significant withdrawal of Ukrainian and Russian-backed forces since the
signing of the Minsk Two peace accords in February 2015. We are doubtful this
would have happened under a Poroshenko presidency. At the same time, it’s not
necessarily Zelensky himself who arranged this withdrawal, but other factors
that were enabled with his election, such as his decision to grant former
President Kuchma enhanced authority (he was active in the withdrawal process),
as well as Russian President Putin responding to PACE’s decision to restore the
Russian delegation. This withdrawal would not have occurred without Putin’s
direct approval.

In light of these events (recent decisions for renewed
trade with Kazakhstan, the June 24 PACE resolution,
the Stanytsia Luhanska withdrawal), it’s safe to say that a certain thaw is
occurring in the otherwise tense conflict between Russia and Ukraine and its Western
allies. Such a thaw is what Ukrainians were hoping for when electing Zelensky.
It’s impossible to predict how far this process will go, but fulfilling the
Minsk Accords will remain very difficult and won’t be realistic for at least
the next year.

This withdrawal will solidify Zelensky’s high
approval ratings, as well as boost the popularity of his political party, The
People’s Servant, in the July 21 parliamentary elections.