After the Foreign Ministry of Russia published on Nov.
17 the contents of the ministry’s correspondence with France and Germany
regarding the Normandy process, France, Germany and Ukraine have responded. The
French government called the event “contrary to diplomatic rules and customs”,
and the German government sees it as “a breach of diplomatic practices”, dw.com
reports.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba called it
“Russia finishing with the Normandy Format”, but that France, Germany, and
Ukraine would continue to push for the format’s revival.
Out-going German Chancellor Angela Merkel told
reporters that the publication that her correspondence regularly ends up in the
press and that this “changes nothing”, pravda.com.ua reported on Nov. 18.
The correspondence includes attempts by Russia to
force Germany and France into signing a position paper stating that the war in
Donbas is an internal conflict, among other points reflecting the Russian
position.
James Hydzik: There is an
excellent analysis on eurointegration.com.ua by Serhiy Sidorenko claiming that
the publication is actually an intended gift from Russia to Ukraine. On some
levels, Sidorenko is correct. The reaction from western Europe has been to hold
Russia to the Normandy process despite what Kuleba rightly points to as Russia
trying to force others to leave. Moreover, their private correspondence has
matched their public statements – a massive confidence-booster for the
Ukrainian government.
However, the analysis thus far does not look into the
fact that the Russian Foreign Ministry essentially threw a temper tantrum after
its ultimatum regarding a position paper was rejected. The same thing is
happening with gas, as Gazprom’s attempt to paper over the actual ownership of
Nord Stream II in Germany was rejected. Likewise, the Belarusian border crisis
shows that previous ploys with migrants won’t work as easily as they did
before. What will a Russian government that seems to be perceiving itself as
increasingly stymied do next? Possibly, the attention to armed forces movements
successfully signalled that attempts to relieve this pressure militarily will
also not be unmet. However, the overall question remains.