G7 diplomats warn Avakov about elections-related violence

The ambassadors of G7 countries sent a letter to
Ukraine’s Internal Affairs Minister Arsen Avakov asking him to ensure that the
presidential elections aren’t disrupted, the rbc.ua news site reported on March
16, citing anonymous sources. The ambassadors also expressed their concern over
right-wing radical movements being activated during election campaigning. They
called upon Avakov to ensure the lawfulness and transparency of the elections
process.

The use of street fighting at election campaign events
is a threat to the elections process and attempt to disrupt it entirely,
President Poroshenko said during a March 17 campaign event in central Kyiv.
“The campaign of communicating with voters is trying to be shifted towards a
format of street fights,” the president said, referring to last weekend’s attacks by National
Squads thugs on police at a Poroshenko campaign event in the city of Cherkasy.
“It’s the Ukrainian government’s obligation to prevent this scenario,” the
president said, adding that its organizers “with all truths and untruths are
provoking us to apply brutal physical force.”

The National Corps, the political wing of the Azov
paramilitary battalion, and the National Squads, its activist wing widely
accused as being street thugs, engaged in their latest protests on March 16
during the president’s campaign stop in the city of Poltava. The protests were
less violent, with the main activity involving plush pig dolls being thrown at
the stage, in reference to the Russian military parts scandal.
About a dozen activists were arrested. The same afternoon, the same
organizations held a protest in central Kyiv, in which they also hurled plush
pig dolls at the Presidential Administration building. The police said 2,000
activists were involved, while the National Corps estimated 10,000.

Zenon Zawada: Last week,
MP Boryslav Bereza said that Avakov, who controls Ukraine’s National Police,
was irate about the degree of violence at last weekend’s protests, which
resulted in 22 injured police officers in Cherkasy.
As we explained, Avakov not only controls the National Police, but he is also
widely believed to control the activities of the National Corps and the
National Squads. In which case, repeated incidents of such violence are likely
to demoralize the police, as more officers find out their own police chief is
behind the very attacks against them.

It’s not clear whether the March 9 violence (both in
Kyiv and Cherkasy) was planned, or if it spun out of control. What it clear is
that Avakov, and his allies in the election campaign of Yulia Tymoshenko, saw
the need to reduce the level of violence during the March 16 protests,
switching to the tactic of throwing plush pig dolls. This decision was
influenced by the G7 letter, as Avakov and Tymoshenko are desperate to maintain
strong ties with Western authorities, who decided they needed to be scolded.

We believe this decision also influenced by last
week’s release of a U.S. State Department report on human rights in Ukraine,
which classified the National Corps and C14 as being hate groups. Neither
Tymoshenko nor Avakov want the negative publicity of having such affiliations,
particularly during an election campaign. (While Avakov is widely believed to
control the National Corps, C14 is widely believed to be controlled by the
Presidential Administration.)

We expect these protests against the Russian military
parts scandal to continue every Saturday, transforming into a election fraud
protest after the March 31 vote. We expect it will be organized to gradually
collect as many anti-Poroshenko forces as possible leading into the
second-round runoff (Apr. 21), when fraud again will be alleged. For this
reason, we expect it will be kept peaceful, sticking to tactics such as plush
dolls being thrown, into order to attract as many people as possible. But we
expect weekly protests won’t draw much more than 10,000 participants
consistently. The protests will wax and wane every week in that range, barring
any more unforeseen scandals and events.