Gazprom reportedly charges Ukraine extra USD 7 bln

Naftogaz of Ukraine (NAFTO) reportedly received an extra bill from Gazprom (GAZP RU) worth about USD 7 bln for natural gas that was not purchased in 2012 under a take-or-pay clause, the mass media reported on Jan. 25. The bill’s value is equivalent to almost 16.5 bcm of gas, or 2/3 of what Naftogaz purchased in 2012. Naftogaz confirmed the information on the bill via mass media, while Gazprom did not comment on the issue.

Alexander Paraschiy: With its bill, Gazprom is insisting that Naftogaz had to “take or pay” 41.6 bcm in 2012, which is the maximum possible interpretation of their agreement signed in 2009. However, many experts interpreted the deal and its amendments as though Naftogaz is obliged to buy a minimum amount of 33.3 bcm of gas annually. Furthermore, it was Gazprom’s decision to sell to Naftogaz much less than 33 bcm in 2012 (Gazprom sold a total of 33 bcm to Ukraine in 2012, of which 8 bcm went to the privately owned Ostchem). Yet at the moment of the deal’s signing in 2009, Naftogaz was the only ultimate buyer of Russian gas in Ukraine. Next, Gazprom will have to prove that it “was giving” but Naftogaz “did not take” 16.5 bcm of gas last year.

While Naftogaz’s legal position does not look weak, the key risk for Ukraine in this situation is Gazprom using a potential refusal to pay as a pretext to cut gas supplies to Naftogaz. That would be especially harmful in the mid-winter.

We do not believe Gazprom’s ultimate goal is to get money from Naftogaz (it’s clear that Ukraine’s budget for 2012 or 2013 does not foresee any comparable amounts). Most likely, it’s the latest attempt at geopolitical games and a response to recent Ukrainian gambits such as last week’s signing of a PSA with Shell on shale gas production and recent statements on speeding up EU integration.

Another possible goal of Gazprom’s attack involves securing positions on Ukraine’s local gas market: at minimum – lobbying access to Ukraine’s retail gas market, at most – taking over Naftogaz or kicking it off the market of domestic trading of Russian gas.