GDP falls 1.3% yoy in 1Q13

Ukraine’s GDP fell 1.3% yoy in 1Q13, according to UkrStat preliminary estimates released on April 30. Falling industrial output (-5.0% yoy in 1Q13) and shrinking construction output (-16.8% yoy) were responsible for the GDP decline.  At the same time, retail trade (+10.8% yoy for organized retail trade) and agri-production (+5.8% yoy) mitigated economic decline in the quarter.

Alexander Paraschiy: The poor 1Q result prompts us to lower our 2013 GDP growth forecast to 0.7% yoy from 1.6% yoy. This estimate still presumes some revival of industry in 2H13 and a strong grain harvest in the new season.