Government planning return to economic activity in May, Shmyhal says

The Ukrainian government has formed an economic
development council, consisting of leading academics and economists, to develop
a strategy for Ukraine to emerge from the severe quarantine in May, Prime
Minister Denys Shmyhal announced on his Telegram channel on Apr. 10. “Ukraine
is supposed to go to work in May,” he said. “In what conditions, in what new
social standards, in what time frames – these are the questions that the
government is working on with analysts.” Among the priorities identified so far
are creating 500,000 new jobs, offering loans to SMEs, partially removing
restrictions on public transport and implementing new work schedules, according
to a list Shmyhal posted.

The base-case scenario for coronavirus infections in
Ukraine is no more than 2% of the population, or up to 800,000 people, the
Health Ministry of Ukraine said on its Telegram channel on Apr. 12. “This
optimistic scenario is possible owing to the implementation of preventative
measures,” said Viktor Liashko, the chief medical officer of Ukraine. “At a 2%
infection rate, our healthcare system can painlessly handle the number of sick
patients who will be sent to intensive therapy units.” At the same time, an
infection rate of 10% or more can cause Ukraine’s medical system to collapse,
he said.

As of noon, Apr. 13, 93 people have died, while 97
patients are confirmed to have recovered from the COVID-19 disease. A total of
3,102 patients have been infected, according to the Center for Public Health at
the Health Ministry of Ukraine. An estimated 79 Kyiv residents were infected on
Apr. 12, the highest daily amount since the crisis began, Mayor Vitali
Klitschko said in his daily briefing. Six of those infected were medical workers.
At least 330 medical workers have been infected throughout Ukraine, the health
minister said on Apr. 10. An estimated 24 Ukrainian citizens abroad were
infected and have recovered, while six citizens abroad died, according to
Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry.

Zenon Zawada: It’s
positive the government is planning for a return to economic activity in May.
As for the plan, it would be wise to involve leading entrepreneurs, rather than
only academics, who tend to be removed from the realities on the ground. Low-interest
loans is a positive idea, but creating 500,000 serious jobs is not very
realistic. If it happens, most of these jobs are likely to be low-paid
employment in public works or maintenance, unless some major infrastructure
projects are announced (they have been far and few between since independence).
Virus-related jobs might be created, such as some form of auxiliary police to
ensure restrictions are upheld.