Groysman to remain as PM after resignation rejected by parliament

Ukraine’s parliament didn’t muster enough votes at its
May 30 session to dismiss Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman. He submitted his resignation on May 20,
the same day that President Volodymyr Zelenskiy called upon Cabinet ministers
to surrender their posts in his inauguration speech. The measure drew only 97
votes out of 226 needed, with the most support for Groysman coming from the
coalition MPs of the Poroshenko Bloc and the People’s Front.

On May 30, Zelenskiy submitted to parliament for immediate
review the dismissal of Security Service of Ukraine Head Vasyl Hrytsak, Defense
Minister Stepan Poltorak and Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin, the presidential
administration website said. Zelenskiy is also preparing documents for the
dismissal of Prosecutor General Yuriy Lutsenko, the website said. In order for
parliament to approve the request, it must receive a supporting recommendation
from the Prosecutors Qualifications Disciplinary Commission or the Supreme
Justice Council, the pravda.com.ua news site said.

Zenon Zawada: Much
friction has emerged between the Zelenskiy and Poroshenko camps amid several
cases of resignation requests not being honored in the transition phase. Yuriy
Artemenko submitted his resignation as head of Ukraine’s National Radio and
Television Broadcasting Council, which was approved by former President
Poroshenko, only for Zelenskiy to overturn the decision with a May 24 decree.
Yet Artemenko doesn’t want to return to the post, though Groysman will serve
out his remaining term.

In our view, Groysman was fully prepared to leave his
post in order to criticize Zelenskiy for his first moves as president, as well
as economic difficulties. He also didn’t want to take blame for government
ineptitude and economic trouble had the elections occurred as a later date, in
October (as originally scheduled), which remained possible when he submitted
his resignation (and still is, though less likely).

Nonetheless, remaining as prime minister presents
advantages to Groysman, particularly in light of the parliamentary elections
scheduled for July 21. The main advantage is he will remain in the daily news
cycle, which will boost badly needed publicity for his Ukrainian Strategy
party. With talented staff, we think it’s possible his party can break through
the 5% threshold to qualify, but not likely.

As for Lutsenko, we assumed that him announcing his intention to remain
as prosecutor general until after the elections meant that he reached an
agreement with the Zelenskiy administration. But apparently the transition
friction extends to him as well. Like Groysman, he will draw support from
coalition MPs to remain as prosecutor general. Unlike Groysman, he won’t be
competing in the parliamentary elections.