Hroisman endorsed by Rada heavyweights as next Ukraine PM

Volodymyr Hroisman, the current Ukrainian parliamentary speaker, was endorsed as the next prime minister on March 24 by Yuriy Lutsenko, the head of the Petro Poroshenko Bloc parliamentary faction. He said he asked the representatives of the factions of the former coalition, including the Poroshenko Bloc, to determine whether their respective factions would support Hroisman’s candidacy. These representatives will meet again on March 25 to revise the coalition agreement and listen to Hroisman’s proposals, said a Fatherland MP. Lutsenko also confirmed that current Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk is ready to resign.

The People’s Front party led by PM Yatsenyuk will consider Hroisman’s candidacy and would require that his replacement as speaker will be People’s Front MP Andriy Parubiy, said on March 24 People’s Front MP Viktoria Siumar. In addition, the Fatherland and Radical Party factions will consider Hroisman’s candidacy, Lutsenko said, not mentioning the Self-Reliance party. In response, Self-Reliance issued a press release stating it conditionally supports Finance Minister Natalie Jaresko to lead a technocrat government, but the candidate isn’t as important as the three critical reforms it has demanded.

Oleh Liashko, the head of the Radical Party, announced on March 23 that his parliamentary faction of 20 MPs officially recalled their signatures from the coalition agreement, demonstrating the document for a television network. In response, Hroisman acknowledged the coalition has less than the needed majority and is inactive. At the same time, he said he isn’t required to officially announce the coalition’s dissolution. Recall, Liashko declared on Sept. 1, 2015 that his faction was abandoning the coalition, yet coalition leaders have since alleged that he never did so officially.

Zenon Zawada: Thursday provided the latest twists and surprises in the Ukrainian drama classic, “As the Coalition Forms.” In terms of selecting the next prime minister, which is a separate matter from forming the next coalition, Hroisman has become the favorite and we believe he has a better than 50% chance of becoming prime minister. Hroisman’s expressed interest in the post and Lutsenko’s endorsement indicates this is the option favored by the president and the oligarchy. Poroshenko’s entourage has floated his name to determine what the public reaction will be, particularly in the West, whose representatives were hoping for a technocrat government. If not enough support is mustered among the MPs of the pro-Western factions, then the votes can be recruited from the MPs elected by single-mandate districts.

Liashko’s announcement affects the forming of the next parliamentary coalition, which must be forged from at least three of the six existing factions that can provide enough votes to have a majority. We have maintained  the view that the most likely coalition to emerge will be between the Poroshenko Bloc, the People’s Front and the Radical Party. In withdrawing the signatures of his 20 MPs, Liashko has significantly enhanced his position in the struggle between factions to secure the most numerous and lucrative posts. We still believe the most likely scenario is a coalition between these three factions as we see no other viable alternative. The Self-Reliance and Fatherland parties aren’t interested, while the Opposition Bloc is off limits.