Industrial output declines 0.7% in September

Ukraine’s industrial
output declined 0.7% yoy in September after growing 0.6% yoy in August, the
State Statistics Service reported on Oct. 22. Seasonally adjusted output declined
1.8% m/m in September.

 

In 9M21, industrial
output increased 1.4% yoy (vs. a 6.2% yoy decline in 9M20).

 

Manufacturing output
declined 1.1% yoy in September (after a 2.2% yoy growth in August). The decline
was mostly due to a drop in chemicals production (-9.6% yoy vs. -5.6% yoy in
August) and food industry (-4.2% yoy vs. -4.8% yoy in August). Metals
production stayed flat year-on-year in September (vs. 5.4% yoy growth in
August), machinery production inched up 0.7% yoy (+5.1%).

 

Mining sector
production advanced 1.0% yoy in September (vs. a 2.5% yoy decline August). In
particular, iron ore production advanced 3.5% yoy (-6.7%), oil and gas production inched
up 0.4% yoy (-1.6%). At the same time, coal production dropped 12.7% yoy
(-9.9%).

 

The supply of
electricity and natural gas declined 2.4% yoy (vs. 0.3% yoy growth in August).

 

Regionally, output
declined in 17 out of 25 regions. It dropped the most in Chernivtsi (-23.2%
yoy), Zakarpattia (-11.5% yoy) and Odesa (-8.6% yoy), regions. The highest
industrial growth in September was in Vinnytsia (+10.1% yoy), Sumy (+9.6% yoy) and Dnipropetrovsk (+8.0% yoy).

 

Evgeniya Akhtyrko:  The industrial performance is
frustrating. The drop of metallurgical and machinery sectors from growth to
stagnation drew all industrial output to the red amid low and/or uneven output
in other sectors.

 

We don’t see any
factors which could help Ukraine’s industrial production accelerate through the
end of the year. We expect Ukraine’s industrial output to increase 1.5% yoy in
2021 (vs. 4.5% yoy decline in 2020).