Industrial output growth stays negative in July

Industrial output declined 0.9% yoy in July – the second straight month in negative territory, according to UkrStat. Cumulative 7M12 growth stood at 0.2%. The performance of export-oriented sectors was truly dissappointing: metallurgy (down 8.6% yoy in July) and machinery (down 7.4% yoy) both posted the sharpest drop in monthly output YTD. Domestic demand-driven food-processing remained marginally positive (+0.4% yoy) while utilities surged 10.2% yoy.

Vitaliy Vavryshchuk: We think the chances for a reversal in the industry growth trend are negligible – the sector is set to stagnate through end-2012 due to feeble external demand. We stick with our 2012 industry growth projection of 0.2%.