Industrial output slows to 0.4% yoy growth in November

Ukraine’s industrial output slowed to 0.4% yoy growth
in November after increasing 1.4% yoy in October, the State Statistics Service
reported on Dec. 22. Seasonally adjusted output declined 0.5% m/m in November.

In 11M21, industrial output increased 1.3% yoy (vs. a
5.4% yoy decline in 11M20).

Manufacturing output increased 1.8% yoy in November
(after a 0.4% yoy increase in October). In particular, machinery production
grew 6.7% yoy, metals output increased 4.1% yoy, pharmaceuticals surged 14.2%
yoy, and chemicals picked up 8.5% yoy. At the same time, food output slid 0.7%
yoy; coke production and oil processing declined 3.3% yoy.

Mining sector production advanced 0.9% yoy in November
(vs. 0.6% yoy growth October). In particular, oil and gas processing advanced
0.4% yoy, while coal production dropped 0.7% yoy and iron ore output declined
1.9%.

The supply of electricity and natural gas declined
6.4% yoy (vs. 7.6% yoy growth in October).

Regionally, output increased in 14 out of 25 regions.
It grew the most in Ivano-Frankivsk (17.7% yoy), Rivne (16.4% yoy) and Sumy
(11.8% yoy) regions. The highest industrial declines in November were in
Kirovohrad (-17.0% yoy), Kharkiv (-9.3% yoy) and Kyiv (-7.9% yoy) regions.

Evgeniya Akhtyrko: The
situation in Ukraine’s industry is devastating. Except for metallurgy, which
benefited from an incredibly favorable price situation at the global market,
none of the other sectors showed a consistent improvement after the pandemic
shock of the previous year. This result demonstrates an overall structural
weakness and the low resilience of Ukrainian industry to shocks.

We expect Ukraine’s industrial output to increase 1.1%
yoy in 2021 (vs. 4.5% yoy decline in 2020).