Klimkin, Lavrov report no progress in Donbas peacekeeping talks

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin met with Russian
Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Feb. 16 at the Munich Security Conference,
reporting no progress in what Klimkin described as long talks to agree upon a
UN peacekeeping mission to Ukraine’s war-torn Donbas region. The leaders of the
Normandy Format also failed to meet during the conference to discuss the
conflict, which Klimkin attributed to the German delegation failing to arrive
by the meeting’s scheduled time on 18:00 on Feb. 16. He mentioned the
possibility of the meeting being rescheduled for the next day yet it didn’t
occur then either. In statements afterwards, the Ukrainian side insisted upon
the condition that the international community gradually assume control of the
Russian-Ukrainian border on the occupied territory, while the Russian side
expressed disappointment that the Ukrainians didn’t propose a plan guaranteeing
the safety of Russian officers upon their return to the Joint Center for
Control and Coordination in Donbas.

Intensified U.S. sanctions against Russia will force its
leaders to agree to a UN peacekeeping mission in Donbas, Anders Fogh Rasmussen,
who currently serves as an advisor to Ukrainian President Poroshenko, told
journalists on Feb. 17. “It’s very important to maintain the pressure on
Russia,” he said, as reported by the Ukrinform news agency “The U.S. decision
to intensify sanctions and give Ukraine armaments increased the pressure
against Russia and we need to maintain it to force the Russian to truly move
forward, including on issues of the peacekeeping mission.” Ukraine and Russia
must first agree upon the mission’s members, he said, which will have to
include officers from non-NATO member-states to accommodate Russia. Rasmussen
said he doubts any positive developments will occur until after the Russian presidential
elections on March 18. “So far, the proposal that Putin initiated two months
ago with a very small mission and without a strong mandate, won’t lead to
resolving the issues in eastern Ukraine,” he said.

Zenon Zawada: Not only will the Russians not agree on a UN peacekeeping mission by
March, but we don’t expect any agreement until after the 2019 elections in
Ukraine. Russia still wants to have influence in the Ukrainian parliament and
Russian-oriented parties are polling relatively well. Moreover, agreeing to
fulfill the Minsk Accords ahead of the elections will only give a massive boost
in support for the president and his party in the elections. Only until the
Russians see that they have lost any significant influence in Ukraine’s
parliament, as well as the legislatures of the EU, will they consider a UN
peacekeeping to fulfill the Minsk Accords. In the meantime, they are buying
time to build up their military preparedness. The Russian war of attrition in
Ukraine, which is also aimed at exhausting Europe, is having some success as
evidenced by the lack of priority given by the German delegation in
participating in the Normandy Format talks.