Kyiv autocephaly campaign will further fragmentize Ukraine, Russia says

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko’s initiative to
gain autocephaly for the Ukrainian Orthodox Church-Kyiv Patriarchate will lead
to Ukraine’s further fragmentation, Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria
Zakharova told an Oct. 16 press briefing. “This is one of the additional – but
if to speak of the future – then it could be one of the largest strikes against
the most painful problem that Ukrainian society faces, namely the consolidation
of the Ukrainian people and the consolidation of the foundations of Ukrainian
statehood,” she said. “This is a terrible blow whose consequences are not only
to be appreciated, but seen. The process has begun. This is not a centripetal,
but a centrifugal process. When we hear accusations in Moscow’s address that
Russia is engaged in practically Ukraine’s fragmentation and so forth, this is
the fragmentation of Ukraine and the hammering of the latest, biggest nail of
this whole funeral structure under the Minsk process. The current regime is
doing that.”

Zenon Zawada: In
anticipating the collapse of Ukrainian statehood, Zakharova is actually
projecting the Russian government’s anticipation for such an outcome. Her
comments reveal that the Russian government is developing the narrative that it
was the Poroshenko administration that will bear responsibility for the
collapse of Ukrainian statehood, and not the Russian government’s hybrid war
against Ukraine. And when the conflict expands in Ukraine, the Russian mass
media narratives will lay full blame on the Poroshenko administration for
having ignited social tensions in the country. Of course, Poroshenko will argue
that his autocephaly campaign is aimed at consolidating the Ukrainian nation.

We are confident that the Russian government will
not only take advantage of any conflicts arising from the granting of
autocephaly to the Ukrainian Orthodox Church-Kyiv Patriarchate, but it will
take an active role in escalating such conflicts by encouraging the most
devoted faithful of the Moscow Patriarchate. Though Poroshenko has motivated a
certain part of the electorate to support his re-election bid, he has also
opened a new avenue for the Kremlin to take advantage of social unrest in
Ukraine. Russian mass media will be sure to use any violent scenes to broadcast
and promote narratives, particularly among Western audiences, that will be used
to justify expanded aggression. Of course, Poroshenko will take also advantage
of such possible scenes to mobilize the electorate to the voting booths to
ensure his re-election.