Kyiv erupts in biggest protest since 2004 revolts to demand EU Association

Between 100,000 and 200,000 Ukrainians filled central Kyiv to protest the November 21 Cabinet of Ministers resolution to cancel plans to sign the Ukraine-EU Association Agreement, as well as demand that Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych sign the pact at the Eastern Partnership summit that begins Thursday, November 28 in Vilnius. The demonstration was the biggest since 2004, when about a million Ukrainians jammed central Kyiv for several weeks to protest falsified elections as part of the Orange revolts. Several violent incidents erupted between protestors and law enforcement authorities, with no serious injuries reported.

During the demonstration at Kyiv’s European Square, opposition leaders called for the dismissal of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine, including Prime Minister Mykola Azarov, for rejecting the agreement with EU. In the event that Yanukovych fails to sign the agreement, opposition leaders said they will demand his impeachment and called for the EU leadership to apply sanctions against Yanukovych and his entourage. They called for an extraplenary parliamentary session on November 27 to approve legislation necessary for signing the agreement. They called for the release of imprisoned former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko.

Zenon Zawada: The massive turnout served to demonstrate to the EU that there’s a critical mass in Ukraine supporting the Association Agreement. We expect Yanukovych to take the large scale of the protest into account these next three days in reaching his final decision, particularly when considering his well-known phobia of mass demonstrations.

On a domestic basis, the mass protest confirmed that the Cabinet resolution has placed an enormous hurdle for Yanukovych in his presidential re-election hopes (set for March 2015), regardless of whether he meets expectations on the agreement. If he signs it, he will gain only a minimal amount of votes from the pro-EU majority electorate that has lost confidence in his ability to lead and is eager to remove him from office. Not signing the agreement is a path to certain conflict with the pro-EU majority, which won’t tolerate the election fraud organized by Yanukovych’s government in 2004 that ignited the Orange revolts.

We believe yesterday’s events have launched a period of political instability domestically – regardless if the agreement is signed – that will reach crisis levels as the March 2015 presidential elections draw closer. Yanukovych has boxed himself into a corner politically from which it will be very difficult to emerge from.