Lavrov admits to backing Donbas separatists against Ukraine

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov admitted on
Dec. 17 that his government is supporting the illegal separatist governments in
Donetsk and Luhansk to keep Ukraine within its geopolitical orbit. When asked
at a Moscow press conference why doesn’t Russia recognize the independence of
the self-declared Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics, Lavrov replied, “You
want to recognize DNR and LNR? And what further? Lose the rest of Ukraine and
leave it to the Nazis?”

At the same time, Lavrov assured the public that it’s
not Russia currently waging war against Ukraine. “It’s the citizens of Ukraine
who live in Donbas that are waging war against the Ukrainian regime, which has
all the Nazi and neo-Nazi traits,” he said, adding later, “I believe that there
are no alternative to the Minsk Accords. I promise you that we are not going to
wage war with Ukraine.”

Further belying his remarks that day, Lavrov warned
Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko of military consequences against further
provocations. “Poroshenko is planning an armed provocation on the border with
the Russian Federation, the border with Crimea, during the last ten days of
December. He will get not a small response, I assure you,” he said, adding that
his principled position is for martial law not to interfere with elections.

The prior day, Poroshenko told a Kyiv press conference
that he will renew martial law in Ukraine – which expires on Dec. 26 – only in
the event that Russia conducts a full-scale invasion. “If a full-scale invasion
of Russian armies on Ukrainian territory doesn’t occur, martial law won’t be
extended and preparations for presidential elections will begin,” he said.

Zenon Zawada: If Russia
admits to using the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics as geopolitical
instruments against Ukraine, then that begs the question of why would it limit
its support to politics, if this support could be extended to the military? Of
course, at this point the evidence is overwhelming that Russia is militarily
supporting the Donbas separatists. The longer Russia extends its hybrid war
against Ukraine, the more ridiculous these comments – contradictory by their
very essence – appear, particularly in a court of law. Recall that in early
December, Lavrov’s spokeswoman suggested the possibility of Russia
annexing the Ukrainian capital, violating
not only diplomatic decorum but also rational limits.

We believe the Russian government is planning to
continue to manipulate the Donbas conflict for its geopolitical ends for at
least another five years. In that time, it expects that (a) a Kremlin-friendly
regime will emerge in Ukraine, (b) the Ukrainian state will collapse, (c) more
Kremlin-friendly legislators will get elected in Europe or (d) any combination
of these expectations.

As for martial law in Ukraine, we still believe that
Poroshenko wants to either extend it this month, or more likely renew it some
time during the election campaign season leading up to the March 31 vote. And
we believe this could be done without a full-scale Russian invasion, despite
his insistence to the contrary. Whether he will try, or be allowed to do so,
remains to be seen.

Poroshenko has wide access to state resources, but
doesn’t have control of the national police force. Martial law would give him
the ability to use other law enforcement structures under his control –
particularly the Security Service of Ukraine – to influence the elections.