Macron, Poroshenko agree upon OSCE role in Ukraine conflict talks

Newly elected French President Emmanuel Macron said he will continue to support the Normandy Format talks to resolve the conflict in eastern Ukraine after his first meeting with Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko on June 26. To improve the dialogue, both leaders endorsed including an OSCE representative in the talks. Yet Poroshenko continued to advocate for deploying an armed OSCE mission to Donbas. “Activating the OSCE’s role, including an armed mission and the OSCE’s 24-hour presence – will ensure the effective implementation of the Minsk Accords,” Poroshenko told a joint press briefing with reporters. Russia is the aggressor that initiated the warfare, Macron told reporters. He acknowledged the Minsk Accords haven’t been ideal, but said there aren’t any better proposals to resolve the conflict.

Zenon Zawada: In our view, Macron felt compelled to offer something new to the Normandy Format process and including the OSCE representative seems like a harmless concession offered to Poroshenko. Yet we remain very pessimistic about any prospects of an armed OSCE mission, which is useful as a talking point for Poroshenko in a peace process that is otherwise dead.

We are confident that all the parties involved in this process are more-or-less satisfied with the status quo of low-level warfare in Donbas. Introducing an armed OSCE mission would change this equilibrium, which is the last thing Western leaders want. Their main strategy continues to be to patiently wait for the sanctions to gradually erode the Russian economy and destabilizes Putin’s regime.