Merkel party finishes first in German vote, nationalists post strong result
25 September 2017
As widely expected,
the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) led by German Chancellor Angela Merkel won
the most seats in the German parliamentary elections held on Sept. 24, with
32.8% of votes. Meanwhile, the Social Democrats led by Martin Schulz, the former
president of the European Parliament, had its worst results since World War Two
(20.7%) and announced it was leaving the coalition with the CDU. Also for the
first time since the war, a nationalist force – the Alternative for Germany –
finished in third place with slightly higher results than expected (13.2%). The
center-right Free Democratic Party gained 10.7% votes.
In elections held on
Sunday for France’s Senate, The Republicans party consolidated its conservative
majority and outperformed the Republic on the Move party led by President
Emmanuel Macron, which had disappointing results. Meanwhile, the disappointing
performance of France’s nationalist party precluded strong results for the
Senate, which is chosen by electors, not the public.
outlined in our Sept. 21 political update, nationalist parties that are aligned
with the Russian government are continuing to ride the anti-immigrant momentum
in the West. Combined with other political factors, we could see attempts to
relax sanctions over the Ukrainian occupation (as proposed by the Alternative
for Germany and Free Democratic Party) at the EU level next year. Yet the
pivotal moment for sanctions against Russia, in our view, will be the 2019
parliamentary elections in Ukraine. A strong performance by Russian-oriented
parties could make Europeans more open to relaxing Ukraine-related sanctions.
