Metinvest steel prices rose last week

Ukraine FOB prices for the types of iron and steel
products exported by Metinvest (METINV), Ukraine’s largest producer, resumed
their ascent during April 23 – 30, according to Metal Expert, an industry
consultancy.

 

Pig iron prices (Metal Expert’s FOB Black Sea
assessment for a group of countries that includes Ukraine) rose 3% w/w to USD
560/t on April 30, 51% above their 3Q20 high of USD 370/t on Sept. 18.

 

Billet prices added 3% w/w to USD 615/t on April 30,
48% above their 3Q20 high of USD 415/t on Sept. 11.

 

Slab prices surged 6% w/w to USD 910/t on April 30, 96%
above their 3Q20 high of USD 465/t on Sept. 11.

 

HRC prices increased 3% w/w to USD 1,015/t on April
30, 102% above their 3Q20 high of USD 503/t on Sept. 11.

 

The prices provided by Metal Expert are sophisticated
estimates, but they are not necessarily the same as the prices realized by
Metinvest for its specific products.

 

Dmytro Khoroshun: We expect
the prices to correct later in 2021, albeit from their very high current level.
In the short term, prices might find further support due to China’s apparent
drive to limit steel production.

 

Metinvest’s monthly EBITDA will likely stay close to
and even exceed USD 400 mln in 1Q21 and likely in 2Q21 because of strong steel
and iron ore prices.

We maintain our neutral view on METINV bonds.