Ministry of Economy forecasts 1.5-3% GDP growth in 2010

According to the local daily Kommersant, Ministry ofEconomy prepared a two-scenario macroeconomic forecast for 2010. According to the optimistic scenario Ukraine’s real GDP will grow 3% yoy next year, while pessimistic scenario assumes 1.5% yoy growth. CPI inflation is expected to reach 12-13.5% yoy. Money supply is expected to increase by 16-19%, while monetary base only by 11-14%. Ministry of Economy forecasts that external trade will post a surplus of USD 1 bln next year. Andrii Parkhomenko: Our economic growth forecasts are more optimistic than those of the Ministry of Economy: we expect a 4% yoy GDP growth and an external trade surplus of USD 2.3 bln. We believe that consumer inflation could slow to 7% yoy in 2010. On the other hand, we expect a slower expansion of credit, and thus forecast a narrower differential between money supply and monetary base growth.