Minsk group considering removing Donbas blockade, drafting new ceasefire

The Minsk Trilateral Contact Group to resolve the
conflict in Donbas will consider a proposal made by Ukraine’s lead negotiator
Leonid Kuchma at the June 5 meeting to remove the trade blockade imposed by the
Kyiv government in March 2017, Martin Sajdik, the OSCE special representative
in the group, told reporters afterwards, according to Interfax-Ukraine.
Removing the blockade could become “a big breakthrough,” Sajdik said, adding
that the blockade was a factor that promoted “a rupture between the sides.” The
exchange of Ukrainian war prisoners, including the 24 sailors detained in
November, “will begin to be resolved,” Kuchma said after the June 5 talks,
Interfax said.

In response, former President Poroshenko expressed his
concern in Facebook post about the unexpected news of the prospect of Ukraine
unilaterally lifting the trade blockade, demanding that President Zelensky
explain the basis for “giving such directives to the Ukrainian delegation.” He
pointed out that Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council imposed the
blockade in March 2017 in response to the Russian-backed governments in Donetsk
and Luhansk deciding to confiscate Ukrainian state and private enterprises, as
well as adopting Russian tax law and the Russian currency. Before lifting the
blockade, Poroshenko said a lengthy ceasefire must be achieved, as well as
returning enterprises to their Ukrainian owners. “What further? Reparations
from Ukraine’s budget on behalf of the aggressor? Autonomy with the right to
veto sovereign decisions by the state on the EU-NATO course? We won’t allow the
fulfillment of the Russian scenario on resolving the situation in Donbas!”
Poroshenko wrote.

A new ceasefire agreement is being drafted and is
planned to be signed on June 19, said Boris Gryzlov, Russia’s representative to
the group, as reported by the BBC. As part of this new agreement, Kuchma called
for new clauses, including “not to fire in response,” as well as forbidding
firing at civilian targets, including schools and nurseries, Interfax-Ukraine
said.

Zenon Zawada: If these
proposals are fulfilled, those supporting Poroshenko, as well as the Ukrainian
nationalists, are likely to launch protests, particularly to mobilize their
voters ahead of the July 21 parliamentary elections. But President Zelensky is
well aware that the majority of the public will be supporting such efforts at
peace in Donbas, particularly if he succeeds in returning war prisoners. He
only stands to gain electorally if these proposals are fulfilled in the next
few weeks.

It’s worth considering that the Poroshenko
administration resisted for several weeks imposing the Donbas trade blockade in
March 2017, which was being demanded by activists and nationalist forces that
were waging aggressive protests, including blocking railway routes to occupied
Donbas. The administration eventually capitulated out of political concerns:
not to appear being soft on the war, not to appear as profiting from trade in
cahoots with the Donbas leadership, and to dampen anti-government protest
activity, which had spread to various cities, including Kyiv’s maidan. Mass
protests eventually erupted at parliament in the fall that year. So Poroshenko
is using the same blockade issue – for which he was accused of being soft on
the war – in order to now lob the same accusations against Zelensky.