More Ukrainians now believe Russia started war in Donbas

About 60.3% of Ukrainians now believe that Russia
started the war in Donbas, compared to 48.5% in February 2019, according to
poll results released on Sept. 29. About 21.3% of respondents believe the war
was began by “the Ukrainian government and oligarchs,” while 18.4% are undecided.
About 92% of western Ukrainian residents blame Russia for starting the war,
while only 29% of eastern Ukrainian residents do. About 44% of eastern
Ukrainians blame the Ukrainian government and oligarchs, while only 2% of
western residents do. The poll was conducted between Aug. 14 and 19 among 2,022
respondents by the Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Fund and Razumkov Center. It
was ordered by the Detektor Media civic organization.

About 45.3% of Ukrainians support the protestors
against the alleged falsifications of presidential elections in Belarus,
according to poll results released on Sept. 24. About 31.3% of respondents
support the position of President Aleksandr Lukashenko, who draws the most
support from Ukraine’s Russophile eastern and southern regions. The poll was
conducted between Sept. 12 and 16 among 2,000 respondents by the Kyiv
International Institute of Sociology.

Recall, polls conducted in the last two years
indicated that Lukashenko is the most popular foreign politician among Ukrainians.
About 13.4% of Ukrainians said the foreign politician most worth emulating is
Lukashenko in February 2019, compared to 9.8% for German Chancellor Angela
Merkel, according to a poll of 2,000 respondents by the New Europe Analytical
Center in Ukraine. In November 2019, about 66% of Ukrainians polled had a
positive view of Lukashenko, compared to about 60% for Merkel, according to a
poll of 3,000 respondents conducted by the Rating Sociological Group.

Zenon Zawada: These polls
indicate that the violence in Belarus following the August elections have
prompted Ukrainians to appreciate their own democratic institutions, as fragile
and corrupted they may be. And an increasing number of Ukrainians are
reconsidering their admiration of Lukashenko and his post-Soviet model of
stability, when the cost of such stability is economic stagnation and a
suppression of basic human and individual rights (which Ukrainians enjoy to a
larger extent than most of their post-Soviet counterparts).

The way that Lukashenko handled the August
presidential election in Belarus – and his violent crackdown against protesters
that continue to this day – has affected not only the perception of his
politics among Ukrainians, but also their perception of Russia (which has
directly and openly backed Lukashenko). The Russia poll indicates that some of
those who refused to see the Kremlin’s agency in launching the war in Donbas
are now able to see it owing to its brazen support for Lukashenko. And more
Ukrainians are able to see a direct parallel between the violence being
employed in Belarus, and the more murderous violence being applied in Donbas.

Nonetheless, the policies of Putin and Lukashenko
will continue to draw support from a significant minority of Ukrainians who remain
nostalgic for the peace and stability of the Soviet Union. And they will
continue to blame Western “meddling” in Ukraine for the country’s problems. The
same Kucheriv/Razumkov poll found that about 45% of Ukrainians believe the
country is under “foreign administration” by the IMF. Meanwhile, about 38%
believe that IMF cooperation brings Ukraine needed economic assistance.