Mriya reports mixed harvest update for 2012

Mriya Agroholding (MAYA GF) reported its 9M12 financials with net revenue 2.2x higher yoy at USD 250 mln, EBITDA (including IAS 41 revaluation) 33% higher yoy at USD 195 mln, and net profit  at USD 137 mln (+19% yoy). The company reported some harvesting results, with yields for wheat and rapeseed 1.4x higher yoy (at 5.3 t/ha and 2.8 t/ha, respectively), corn yield 13% smaller yoy (6.0 t/ha) and interim yield for its flagship crop – sugar beets – 18% fewer yoy (36 t/ha).  The company reported it already sowed 140,000 ha with winter wheat and 30,000 ha with winter crops. The company guided USD 280 mln revenue and about USD 200 mln EBITDA for 2012.

Alexander Paraschiy: Mriya’s total harvest result is high above our expectations in wheat and rapeseed (we expected a decline in yields), while in line with our outlook for corn and way below our estimate for sugar beets (we expected flat yields yoy). The latter is a negative surprise for us, taking into account that the sugar beet yield in the Ternopil region, the key area for Mriya,was 1.2x higher yoy as of end-September (according to UkrStat data). Nevertheless, progress in the early grain harvest – as well as higher than we initially expected crop prices – lead us to improve our forecasts for Mriya. All in all, we see a high likelihood that the company will outperform its management guidance for its top line and EBITDA this year. Much will depend on the sugar beet prices that Mriya will report this season.