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NATO believes Ukraine has lost and should negotiate an exit, report says

NATO believes Ukraine has lost and should negotiate an exit, report says

3 September 2014

In NATO’s view, Ukraine has lost control of its eastern border and the war in its east in general, the German news site Spiegel Online (Spiegel.de) reported on Sept. 2, citing an anonymous high-ranking NATO official who attended a crisis meeting of NATO generals that occurred at the end of last week. Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko’s only option left is to hold negotiations to evacuate people from Russian-controlled territories, the source said. At least 20 Russian battalions with 500 soldiers each and military hardware are located on the Ukrainian border, the source said.

 

The meeting also considered Russia’s goal of creating a land corridor to its occupied Crimean peninsula. In early August, the Ukrainian army began retaking control of numerous cities and was marching towards victory, but towards the month’s end, Russia significantly bolstered its military intervention, forcing the Ukrainian army to retreat ever since.

 

The war in Ukraine is the biggest threat to European order since the end of the Cold War in 1991, EU Council President Herman van Rompuy told EU diplomats on Sept. 2, as reported by the UNIAN news agency. “This conflict has no military solution, but at this phase it also has no political solution because there’s no political will from Russia,” he said, adding that the Crimean invasion was a turning point. “If Ukraine surrenders the Association Agreement, the conflict will end quite quickly,” van Rompuy said. “But they won’t do that. After the Maidan, this is a clash of values.” With its third round of sanctions, the EU never went so far against a country located so close, he said. The 28 EU member-states will unite again with a new wave of sanctions, but a larger coalition is needed involving the G8 and NATO, he said.

 

Russian forces and pro-Russian separatists have practically taken control of the entire southern part of the easternmost Luhansk region after the retreat of Ukrainian armies, reported on Sept. 3 Dmytro Tymchuk, a military analyst with the Information Resistance news site. Russian forces are invading the city of Luhansk (population 424,000) and even its northern regions, which have largely eluded the warfare this far. Russian forces are also trying to secure the entire southern half of the Donetsk region under their control.

 

Between 10,000 and 15,000 Russian and pro-Russian soldiers are on Ukrainian territory, said on Sept. 1. Andriy Lysenko, spokesman for the National Security and Defense Council. Every day new Russian soldiers, weapons and hardware are entering Ukrainian territory, he said. Four Russian battalions entered Ukraine on Sept. 1 alone, he said. Meanwhile, 5,000 volunteers in the port city of Mariupol (population 458,500) in the Donetsk region are ready to defend their city from Russian occupation.

 

The KamAZ trucks dispatched illegally onto Ukrainian territory as part of the humanitarian convoy are now being used to supply and transport Russian soldiers on their conquered territory in the Donbas region, Lysenko said on Sept. 2. In particular, four white trucks crossed from Russia to Ukraine on Monday night, accompanied by military vehicles with armed soldiers. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian government has yet to confirm the report that hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers were killed and wounded near the town of Ilovaysk when Russian soldiers fired at them in what was supposed to be an escape corridor created by Russian forces.

 

Zenon Zawada: The Spiegel report is valuable insight into what NATO commanders are thinking. If what’s reported is the position officially adopted by NATO, the Ukrainians will be urged to create the latest Russian-controlled gray-zone territories out of Donetsk and Luhansk, similar to Crimea, South Ossetia in Georgia and Prydnistrovia in Moldova. Indeed Poroshenko’s focus on the talks in Minsk, which last occurred on Sept. 1 and are next scheduled for Sept. 5, and which even involve the separatists, indicates that he’s concentrated on a diplomatic solution. A Presidential Administration report this morning claimed a ceasefire was reached, yet we remain skeptical of its prospects.

 

Moreover, we don’t expect the Russian government to stop at occupying the Donetsk and Luhansk regions as part of any agreement, and view it entirely possible it will dispatch its armies to form a land corridor with the Crimean peninsula (with plans to gradually piece together the Novorossiya state in the long term). Any agreement for a Donbas ceasefire must be accompanied by Western military backing for a potential expansion of war into the neighboring southern regions. We don’t see the war ending this fall and any further Russian occupation of Ukrainian territory (and therefore collapse of any ceasefire) may hurt Poroshenko in his attempts to secure a parliamentary majority in the Oct. 26 election.

 

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