NATO, OSCE will escort Ukrainian ships to Azov ports, veteran spy says

NATO and OSCE ships will escort Ukrainian military
ships in their next attempt to cross the Kerch Strait and dock at Ukrainian
Azov Sea ports, Lt. Gen. Vasyl Bohdan, identified as a veteran of Ukrainian
foreign reconnaissance, said in an interview published on the fakty.ua news
site on Jan. 12. Agreements already exist for such as escort to be arranged, he
said, adding that the Russians will eventually have to allow Ukrainian ships to
pass through the strait. “Everything has its time. Ukraine will freely use both
the Kerch Strait and Azov Sea. Just this time, we shouldn’t make mistakes
again. We should prepare everything well. In order to avoid further
provocations from the Kremlin, a British warship has entered the Odesa port. If
Ukraine grants permission, then NATO ships can appear in other Black Sea ports
such as Kherson, Mykolayiv and Ochakiv,” Bohdan said.

Zenon Zawada: We can’t
confirm the history of NATO ships entering the Azov Sea, but just their mere
presence – let alone being based in ports like Mariupol – is perceived by the
Russians as a direct threat to their national security interests, particularly
in this period of escalating warfare. And while this official is correct in
saying that ships from Ukraine’s western coastline will eventually have to have
the ability to reach the Azov ports, they don’t necessarily have to do so
representing an independent Ukrainian state that is aligned with the West, in
the view of the Russians.

With the looming threat of a larger NATO presence along
Ukraine’s maritime coastline, we fully expect Russia to take actions during
this year’s turbulent elections period to provoke the disintegration of
Ukrainian statehood. The volatility created by the elections, particularly
during the highly contested presidential contest slated for March and April,
provide the ideal opportunity for Russia to make its moves to destabilize
Ukraine, especially with political sentiments in the southeastern regions still
in Russia’s favor.

We can’t view as credible the notions being promoted
by certain politicians and experts that Russia is not interested in Ukraine’s
disintegration. The situation is quite the opposite – the existence of the
Ukrainian state is perceived by Russia as one of the biggest threats to its
national security and must be eventually liquidated or brought under full
authoritarian control, in the view of its leadership.

If Bohdan’s claim is true that the Nov. 25 incident
was a miscalculation by Ukraine’s military leadership, it’s an embarrassment
that not only reveals its inability to understand its main enemy, but also the
military’s utter helplessness amid Russian aggression. However, the timing of
the incident, on the eve of the start of the election campaign, lends credibility
to the view that the excessive Russian reaction was anticipated.