Next Donbas peace talks in Minsk set for May 27 as warfare continues

The next meeting of the Trilateral Contact Group in
Minsk to resolve the armed conflict in Donbas, scheduled for May 27, will
involve discussing the procedure for establishing the order to implement the
group’s decisions, the Interfax-Ukraine news agency reported on May 17, citing
anonymous sources involved in the negotiations. The negotiators will also
discuss clear mechanisms for implementing decisions reached during the Minsk
talks and the instruments for monitoring their implementation. “Speculations at
the negotiating process, as well as bad-faith manipulations by means of
deliberate sabotage of fulfilling measures, will be excluded. This will allow
the sides to focus on a quick and practical fulfillment of approved decisions
and move forward on the issue of peaceful resolution,” an anonymous source
said. The talks will occur in video format.

In addition, the next talks will involve both
representatives of the Russian-backed governments in the occupied territories
of Donetsk and Luhansk, as well as those Donetsk and Luhansk residents
displaced by the conflict, President’s Office Head Andriy Yermak told G7
diplomats and the E.U. Delegation Head to Ukraine during a May 16 meeting. “We
are ready to reach agreements, as foreseen in the Minsk package of agreements,
with citizens of Ukraine who don’t have relations to the illegally armed
formations who didn’t kill our soldiers, and don’t have any relations to the
unrecognized formations. In our view, these very people can be representatives
of Donbas,” Yermak said, as reported by the president’s press service.

Ukrainian diplomats at the Minsk talks have confirmed
that some of the Russian-backed Donbas representatives at the Minsk talks have
Russian citizenship, including Donetsk People’s Republic Foreign Minister
Vladislav Deynego, the Interfax-Ukraine news agency reported on May 15, citing
Oleksiy Matsuka, the chief editor of the Novosti Donbassa news site. In his May
16 remarks, Yermak confirmed that Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba will
visit Berlin in the coming weeks to improve the effectiveness of the Normandy
Four and Trilateral Contact Group talks.

Five Ukrainian soldiers were reported injured with no
casualties during the weekend of May 15-17, as reported by the Joint Forces
Operation press service. In addition, a Ukrainian civilian was injured by a
Russian land mine on May 15 in the Donetsk region. An OSCE mission in the
Luhansk region reported to have barely avoided an exchange of fire the same
day.

Zenon Zawada: One can
imagine just how far apart Russia and Ukraine are in reaching a peace agreement
for Donbas when the next meeting will be about “discussing the procedure for
establishing the order to implement decisions.” Also revealing is the fact that
“mechanisms for implementing decisions” are still being discussed after six
years of warfare. This report merely confirms that the Russian-Ukrainian peace
talks are at a dead end and back to square one.

Yermak’s latest peace proposal reveals just how eager
the Zelensky/Yermak duo is interested in reaching a peace deal in Donbas if
Yermak is making such a convoluted offer. His logic is as follows: if Russia
wants Ukraine to negotiate and reach agreements directly with Donbas
representatives, and if the West opposes that arrangement, then the Donbas
representatives could be those approved by the West and Ukraine’s pro-Western
forces (especially if they have Russian passports).

We don’t expect this “creative solution” to be
acceptable to the West and pro-Western forces for numerous reasons, the main
one being it would set the legal and diplomatic precedents for recognizing the
illegally formed states of Donetsk and Luhansk, thereby shifting responsibility
for the armed conflict and its devastation away from Moscow.

Ideally, Zelensky/Yermak would like to capitulate
to the Russians with such proposals, but they are being restrained by the
Normandy Format partners (France and Germany), as well as Ukraine’s pro-Western
opposition. In the meantime, they will continue to seek these “creative
solutions” while the armed conflict drags on indefinitely.