Normandy advisors meet in Minsk to discuss OSCE police force

The foreign policy advisors of the heads of state of the Normandy Format states (France, Germany, Russia, Ukraine), as well as OSCE representatives, met in Minsk on June 15 to discuss security in the Donbas region, the introduction of an OSCE police mission, the political resolution of the conflict and the next telephone conversation between the heads of state, the Ukrainian Presidential Administration press service reported.

The Kremlin confirmed the same day it was represented at the Minsk meeting by Vladyslav Surkov, a key advisor to Russian President Putin who is widely credited with playing a key role in orchestrating the 2014 rebellion in the Donbas region. The Ukrainian side was represented by Presidential Administration Deputy Head Kostiantyn Yeliseyev, according to numerous news reports.

Zenon Zawada: With Yeliseyev’s direct involvement (instead of Ukraine’s usual lead diplomat at the talks, former President Kuchma), the Ukrainian government is pressing forward with arranging local elections in Donbas this summer. Though the Russians have been publicly refusing to make any concessions on the election conditions, raising their stakes in the negotiations, we believe it’s in their interests to try to arrange them, let alone conduct them.

Firstly, holding the elections will cause domestic strife in Ukraine. The Azov battalion has already threatened violence if the border is not returned under Ukrainian control for the elections, and we believe such threats from paramilitaries aren’t hollow. Even if such preconditions are agreed upon on paper, we believe the Russians are likely to violate simply to provoke the paramilitaries, if not getting some kind of tactical advantage. In the event that violence erupts between state and paramilitary forces, the Russians could use that as a pretext for greater military intervention in Ukraine.

Yet even if the elections are held, we believe there will be plenty of opportunities for the Russians to manipulate the conditions in its favor. Any unfavorable conditions that the Russians agree upon at Minsk could simply be “massaged” when election day comes, with little resistance from the OSCE. And Western governments have already demonstrated a willingness to overlook crimes and violations to relax sanctions. After all, how will it look to the world if the West claims the elections weren’t legitimate after so much damage has been done in Donbas?