Normandy Format to resolve Donbas war to meet in Berlin today

A meeting of the Normandy Format to resolve the armed conflict in Donbas – involving the heads of state of France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine – will take place this evening in Berlin. A meeting will be held beforehand involving French President Francois Hollande, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko “where we will coordinate our positions,” Poroshenko told journalists in Oslo. “I am rather optimistic regarding Ukraine’s future, but unfortunately, not very optimistic on tomorrow’s meeting. But I will be very eager to be surprised,” he said, reiterating Ukraine’s position that Russian soldiers must be removed from Donbas in order to arrange local elections.

The goal of the Normandy summit meeting will be to get Ukraine to “move forward” with Donbas special status and the elections law, reported Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, citing French Foreign Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault. In particular, “detailed requirements” will be demanded of Ukraine in creating the special status, including a calendar for hold the elections, he said. Both Russia and Ukraine will be asked to offer concessions in removing their respective forces and “demonstrate sincerity” in their commitments, he said.

In her turn, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said the leaders will attempt to draw conclusions on where the efforts to resolve the armed conflict stand now, RFE/RL reported. “Of course, it’s not worth expecting some kind of miracle from tomorrow’s meeting. But talks are always important, even when we exchange our views very harshly,” she said. Russian President Vladimir Putin said he is seeking to reinforce previous agreements at the meeting, RFE/Rl said, while Ukraine is seeking a road map that will clearly determine the order in which Russia is supposed to fulfill its commitments.

Zenon Zawada: It looks like Putin’s nuclear war rhetoric in recent weeks made an impression on the French leadership, at minimum, which has demonstrated a particular empathy for Putin’s concerns. But we are confident that the Ukrainians will remain firm in requiring preconditions for setting up local elections, including restoring Ukrainian control of the border, which Hollande said last week could be side-stepped. 

Indeed restoring Ukrainian control of the border is among the key sticking points this time around. The Ukrainian Foreign Minister said on Oct. 12 that he has developed a detailed plan with the OSCE to enable it to take control of the border between occupied Donbas and Russia. The Russians indicated this summer they could agree to the OSCE taking control of the border, but then walked those statements back.

We don’t expect any breakthroughs from Berlin today, which even Poroshenko has admitted, deciding to forgo his standard rosy portraits. In the bigger picture, Putin is continuing to execute his Minsk strategy rather well, which is to exhaust the Western public – with the war and Ukraine – and prompt them to lobby and elect politicians who will begin to drop the sanctions as early as next year.