Normandy Four political directors hold first meeting in Berlin over Donbas

Ukraine’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) released a
statement regarding the Normandy Format meeting held in Berlin on July 26. The
MFA notes that this meeting was the first held by the four foreign ministries’
political directors. UN-mandated peacekeeping was the primary focus of the
meeting, and that despite “significant disagreements with the Russian side”,
the four sides agreed to keep working on defining the outline of a peacekeeping
operation.

The Ukrainian position is unchanged, i.e., that the
operation would have to cover the whole of the occupied territory, include the
removal of foreign armed forces, mercenaries, and military equipment, and
promote peace in the territories. Kyiv Post quoted Russia’s representative,
Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin, as saying that the next Normandy
Format meeting would be held in autumn, but that no date had been set yet.

James Hydzik: Progress was not on the schedule for this meeting, so there is little
disappointment anywhere. Neither Ukraine nor Russia has a reason to budge at
this point, and there are no indications that anything will change before the
autumn meeting. Looking into winter and beyond, we see the possibility of a
push into Kyiv-controlled territory before Ukraine’s 2019 presidential and
parliamentary elections in an attempt to destabilize the country and show the
Poroshenko government as weak. However, there are risks to such an engagement,
as it would be expensive and raise the possibility of new sanctions – and maybe
even backfire and raise Poroshenko’s standing if the Ukrainian government
handles the situation at all adequately.