Opposition leads pro-presidential parties in new polls

The political opposition is ahead according to two new opinion polls published late last week. According to a large survey jointly conducted by the Razumkov Center, GfK Ukraine, Rating Group and the Socis Center, the opposition would win the parliamentary election on a popular support basis. The combined Fatherland and Udar parties have the support of 38.0% of Ukrainians that plan to vote, while Party of Regions and Communists would get 34.0% of votes. In a second survey by the Research & Branding Group, the opposition was also ahead, but the difference between the two forces was within the survey’s 2.0% margin of error. In the former survey, 18.6% of respondents said they were undecided and 15.7% said they did not plan to vote (vs. 13% and 11%, respectively, in the latter survey).

Political party support

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Party                                 Razumkov*  R&B** 
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Fatherland (Tymoshenko)     26.2%   24.6%
Party of Regions (Azarov)     24.6%   25.5%
Udar (Klitschko)                   11.8%   12.5%
Communists (Symonenko)    9.4%     10.4%
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Total opposition***              38.0%   37.1%
Total pro-presidential***      34.0%   35.9%
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* Razumkov Center, GfK Ukraine, Rating Sociological Group, Socis Center: The survey was conducted from July 27-August 9 with 10,979 respondents. Margin of error ± 1%.
** Research & Branding Group: The survey was conducted August 3-13 with 3,117 respondents. Margin of error ± 2%.
*** Pro-presidential includes the Party of Regions and Communists; Opposition includes Fatherland (Tymoshenko Bloc + Front of Changes) and Udar.
Source: Research & Branding Group

Brad Wells: This latest surveys indicates what politicians have been fearing and why this campaign will be so hard-fought and difficult. Though the opposition is ahead or even in most opinion surveys, according to our projections, the Party of Regions is likely to maintain a majority in parliament after the election on the strength of its power base in Ukraine’s most populated regions (as 50% of seats will be assigned by voting in constituencies).